Start GRASP/China Predictably, China’s Year-on-Year Growth Maintains Its Steady Pace

Predictably, China’s Year-on-Year Growth Maintains Its Steady Pace

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Beijing released officially reported data that showed the economy expanding in the second quarter at 6.9 percent, virtually unchanged from the first quarter.
SHANGHAI — Leave it to other countries to soar and swoon in their quarterly economic performance. China prefers a steady pace, at least in its officially reported data.
On Monday, the country announced that its economy had expanded 6.9 percent in the second quarter, unchanged from the year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter.
Powering the Chinese economy were many of the familiar sectors: brisk construction of apartment buildings; strong retail sales, especially online; and rising government deficit spending on infrastructure, including new highways and high-speed rail lines. Much of the new infrastructure is in the sparsely inhabited western deserts, where its short-term economic usefulness may be limited. But President Xi Jinping has a strategic vision, the “One Belt, One Road” plan, to link the economies of Asia, the Middle East, and much of Europe and eastern Africa to the Chinese economy.
What keeps the growth rate of the Chinese economy so smooth? Accounting sleight of hand may play some role. Studies over the years have found that China’s national statisticians appear to overstate growth during periods of economic weakness and understate growth when the economy is booming. A series of recent scandals, particularly in China’s northeast, have also indicated that local officials may overreport economic activity to Beijing when local industries like coal mining and steel production run into difficulty.
China said on Friday afternoon that it was revising its economic output data to take better account of fast-growing sectors like intellectual property, health care, tourism and so-called emerging industries. But Xing Zhihong, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said on Monday morning that this was a continuing project that had not been applied to the second-quarter growth statistics.
China’s consistent growth also reflects the government’s constant intervention as officials try to reach predetermined targets for the country’s economy — currently 6.

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