Who would win in a theoretical matchup pitting the 16-0 Patriots from 2007 against the defending Super Bowl champion 2017 Patriots? Here are the position-by-position breakdowns, projected point spread and more.
Field Yates points out that Rob Gronkowski is the healthiest he has been in years and is primed to put up great numbers for the Patriots. (0: 56)
Coming off a disappointing AFC Championship Game loss to Indianapolis, the 2007 New England Patriots overhauled their receiving corps with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte‘ Stallworth. The result was the greatest offense the NFL has ever seen, a 16-0 regular-season record and a team that came within two minutes of a Super Bowl title.
A decade later, coming off a Super Bowl title, the Patriots have reloaded — and this time, they did it everywhere. They made Stephon Gilmore one of the highest-paid cornerbacks in the game. They traded for one of the league’s best young receivers, Brandin Cooks. They signed two highly efficient free-agent running backs, and they’re getting Rob Gronkowski back from injury. The season hasn’t even started, and there’s already plenty of talk of the Patriots putting up another perfect season, and this time finishing the job in Super Bowl LII.
So if the 2007 Patriots played the 2017 Patriots, who would win?
To answer that question, we can compare our forecast for the 2017 Patriots to the actual performance of the 2007 Patriots. But which forecast? Projecting the upcoming NFL season is about a range of possibilities. If we compare the average expectation for the 2017 Patriots to the reality of the 2007 Patriots, the 2007 team will win every time. That’s because the 2007 Patriots had almost everything go right; until the end of the Super Bowl, it was the best-case scenario of what that season could be.
So we’ve compared the 2007 and 2017 teams here, position group by position group. But we’ve also compared our DVOA ratings for the 2007 Patriots to our projections for the 2017 Patriots in two ways:
The results? At their absolute best, the 2017 Patriots would be better than the 2007 team — but it’s more likely that they will fall short of 2007’s regular-season perfection.
Note: You will see references to DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) throughout. For more on DVOA, go here.
2007 DVOA: 43.5 percent (first in 2007 and first all-time)
2017 average projection: 17.3 percent (second in NFL)
2017 best-case scenario: 32.8 percent (first in NFL)
It’s hard to imagine a quarterback having a season better than Tom Brady did in 2007. His 88.2 Total QBR that year is the highest since ESPN’s metric began in 2006. But you might be surprised by how close Brady now is to Brady then. He had an 83.0 Total QBR in 2016, which means he’s coming off a better year than he was in 2007 (his Total QBR in 2006 was 71.5) . The depth chart behind Brady also reduces the advantage for the 2007 Patriots: Jimmy Garoppolo, a second-round pick with two career NFL starts, is a much more reassuring backup option than Matt Cassel, a seventh-round pick who had appeared only in garbage time.
Oddsmakers believe the 2007 version of the Patriots were better than this year’s team, which is favored by most sportsbooks to win the Super Bowl. 10 years later: The build, stunning end, and influence of the 2007 Patriots Ten games into the season, they were outscoring opponents by a whopping 25.4 points per game. It didn’t end in perfection, but what Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Co. did lives on today. Which teams have the NFL’s best talent under the age of 25? Football Outsiders ranks the franchises from 1-32, with two NFC East clubs in prime spots… and two others in the 20s.
Only two running backs had rushing DVOA above 40 percent with at least 20 carries last season: Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead. The Patriots signed them both this offseason. By comparison, Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris had both put up below-average DVOA ratings in 2006. Pass-catching back Kevin Faulk is a Patriots legend, but Super Bowl LI star James White is his equal. The 2007 Patriots also had no back as agile (or as injury-prone) as Dion Lewis.
Pick your poison: Moss may be the greatest game-breaking wide receiver in NFL history, and Gronkowski may be the greatest game-breaking tight end in NFL history. But if you pick Moss, there’s a much better chance you can still use the poison in January. The 2017 Patriots also have Cooks, one of the top young receivers in the league; the 2007 Pats also had Benjamin Watson, one of the top young tight ends. Julian Edelman was supposed to play the Welker role, but now that will be Danny Amendola with Edelman out for the 2017 season. It’s a step down for the 2017 squad because Edelman was so in sync with Brady on option routes.
Three of the starters in 2007 were chosen for the Pro Bowl: left tackle Matt Light, left guard Logan Mankins and center Dan Koppen. Light was first-team All-Pro. Not one offensive lineman on the Patriots‘ current roster has been selected for the Pro Bowl. The 2007 Patriots finished first in adjusted line yards and fourth in adjusted sack rate. The Patriots were ninth and sixth in those same stats a year ago.
2007 DVOA: -5.8 percent (11th in NFL)
2017 average projection: -6.0 percent (seventh in NFL)
2017 best-case scenario: -14.3 percent (first in NFL)
The 2007 Patriots played a 3-4 scheme, and all three starting linemen were first-round picks: Richard Seymour (2001) , Ty Warren (2003) and Vince Wilfork (2004) . The current interior linemen are rotated more. Alan Branch is a great run-stopper, but he’ll be 33 years old this season. Malcom Brown, a first-round pick in 2015, isn’t yet at the level shown by the fantastic trio of 2007 linemen. The 2007 team had an advantage on pass plays, but results were similar against the run. The 2006 Patriots were 10th in adjusted line yards, and dropped to 17th in 2007. The 2016 Patriots were 11th.
Another big advantage for 2007 over 2017. The Patriots had ranked 10th in adjusted sack rate in 2006, and improved that to second in 2007. They also ranked second in pressure rate (2007 was the first year Football Outsiders tracked pressure with game charting.) Last year, the Patriots ranked 27th in adjusted sack rate and 18th in pressure rate, and of the four players with at least four sacks last season, only Trey Flowers remains.
The top five linebackers for the 2007 Patriots were all 30 or over, including inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (34) and Junior Seau (38) . Aging linebackers were a big reason the Patriots ranked fifth in defensive DVOA through Week 9, but 23rd in Weeks 10-17. The 2017 Patriots have 27-year-old Dont’a Hightower coming off a Pro Bowl year. Shea McClellin and Kyle Van Noy are also in-their-prime, high draft picks who have succeeded in the Pats‘ scheme after disappointing with their original teams.
The Patriots went into 2007 with no cornerback depth behind star Asante Samuel and serviceable Ellis Hobbs. The 2017 Patriots signed Gilmore to form a star tandem with Malcolm Butler, and nickelbacks Eric Rowe and Justin Coleman each allowed less than 6 yards per target last year. Each team had a stud safety, but Devin McCourty is coming off a Pro Bowl season and is five years younger than Rodney Harrison was in 2007.
2007 DVOA: 3.6 percent (seventh in NFL)
2017 average projection: 4.1 percent (third in NFL)
2017 best-case scenario: 6.
