Retirees naturally tend to be more moderate, recent history shows.
Two things happened Tuesday that easily fit into narrative: extreme-conservative Roy Moore won the GOP nomination in the Alabama special Senate election, and moderate-ish Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) announced his retirement .
“Republican moderates are heading for the hills,” the narrative screamed, “and the party is shifting to the right!”
To which we say: Maybe.
The party is undoubtedly shifting to the right, but it’s a little too early to say there is a moderate exodus — or even that the moderate retirements are all that unusual. A look at recent history shows retirees naturally tend to come from the moderate half of the party — perhaps because they represent more moderate districts in which running for reelection is actually a hassle.
Here’s where House Republican retirees have ranked relative to their colleagues over the past 14 years, using DW-NOMINATE scores:
And here’s how the Senate looks, with Corker’s retirement being the first of the cycle:
Retiring Reps. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) and Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) are all among the most moderate members of the House, but we also saw three such moderate members leave voluntarily (without running for other office) in both 2016 and in 2008, when retirements ravaged the GOP ranks after Democrats took the House, and Republicans wound up losing even more seats.
We’re still dealing with a relatively small sample size of retirements in the House, and nearly half of them (3 out of 7) are coming from the party’s more conservative half. Those three retirements from the conservative half are actually as much or more than in 2006,2008,2010 and 2014. Again: Retiring members just tend to be more moderate.
Corker, meanwhile, is certainly among the more pragmatic GOP members of the Senate, but he’s somewhat toward the middle of the caucus ideologically. If Republicans started losing other moderate-ish senators like Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) to retirement, then we might be talking. (These aren’t the most moderate GOP senators, though; most of them aren’t up for reelection next year.)
It’s entirely possible that we’re about to see more retirements from the moderate wing of the GOP — especially in the House — going forward. And dealing with President Trump and the apparently growing influence of his base may be a motivating factor. But the gridlock that still exists in Congress may be motivation enough for plenty of members to retire, and we’d be wise to keep this all in context.
