He explained that Trump has surrounded himself with people who understand international trade very well and that, even with a desire to correct Chinese trade policies that the administration claims are unfair, they all know that a trade war will not do anyone any good. This means that the sides will therefore eventually meet in the middle for an agreement where everyone can come out winners.
Cox said that since China is North Korea’s largest trade partner and alone can keep the regime there afloat, Beijing can use this as leverage in the trade talks with the U. S., knowing that Pyongyang causes problems for Washington and its allies.
Cox said that this is even more so because he envisions that in the first six months of a Trump administration there will be a crisis in Asia, such as North Korea’s continued development of nuclear weapons and longer-range rockets that can reach American territory.
The solution to this complex situation could “rely more on giving China assurances on what a united Korea will look like, and that the threats to China’s borders will not be as severe as they think,” Cox said.
He stressed that if Trump “can reassure them there won’t be a refugee crisis and the United States won’t use a united Korea as a staging ground to give China problems, then that will open the ground for some negotiation over how to deal with North Korea. That could be a major accomplishment of the Trump Administration in its first couple years and could be a major deal for Donald Trump to have as a success to tout to the American people in 2020.”
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