Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc will likely discuss trade and the South China Sea with US President Donald Trump, but when it comes to Beijing, Hanoi seems to be doing fairly well fending for itself
Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc is making his first trip to the United States since assuming office in April last year. He will arrive in Washington on May 29 and meet with US President Donald Trump on May 31. He will be the first Southeast Asian leader to visit Washington under the new administration.
As ever in international politics, it comes at an interesting time.
Just over a year ago, in a very different climate, President Barack Obama visited Vietnam. The populace went mad for him, and for a short time even a fish-kill scandal – 80 tonnes of dead fish were blamed on chemicals dumped by the Formosa Ha Tinh steel plant that set off mass protests – was forgotten. While there, Obama lifted the weapons embargo in place since the 1960s in a move both he and President Tran Dai Quang heralded as the “last hurdle” to normalised relations.
It was the high point of ties that had been warming steadily through the 21st century, accelerated by China’s aggressions in the South China Sea and Beijing’s refusal to respect Vietnam’s 200 nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone. Vietnam welcomes a strong US presence in that area.
However, under President Trump there has been a quiet US retreat in the region, essentially allowing China greater room to increase its hegemony, as some analysts see it. The US pullback, which comes at the expense of nations like Vietnam, is a big carrot in return for Beijing’s help on North Korea, something that Trump needs and is willing to compromise to get.
This will most likely come up at the meeting between the leaders in Washington, as will post-TTP trade. Vietnam was one of the TPP’s strongest supporters, in part to alleviate the trade imbalance with China.
It is hard to say what will come out of the meeting, or if there will be another reportable gaffe or mistake. Phuc’s focus will likely be on the South China Sea and trade. He may surprise Trump by asking to buy more arms.
