Summer movie attendance is down 9 percent this summer. « Spider-Man: Homecoming » could turn that around.
Showbiz analysts’ ‘Spidey senses’ are tingling at the prospect that the latest ‘Spider-Man’ movie could swoop in and save the struggling summer box office.
Movie attendance is down 9 percent this summer, but the hyped « Spider-Man: Homecoming » could bolster July’s numbers, comScore analyst Paul Dergarabedian told CNBC’s « Closing Bell. » The sixth movie in the super-hero series is expected to bring in $85 to $110 million this opening weekend.
Early indications suggest that the movie will actually top $120 million, making it Sony’s second highest opening weekend ever, Deadline reported on Saturday. « Wonder Woman » helped bolster bleak June numbers when it debuted last month, and Spider-Man has the potential to do the same for July, Dergarabedian said.
« I think this movie can do for early July what ‘Wonder Woman’ did for early June, which is get us back on track, » said Dergarabedian.
However, one analyst says a couple of super-hero successes may not be enough to boost studio stocks.
Sony owns Spider-Man but agreed to share its star with Disney ‘s Marvel. Sony would receive ticket sales for the movie, and Disney would receive merchandising rights. As part of the deal, Spider-Man appeared in Disney’s « Captain America: Civil War » last year.
Even if « Spider-Man: Homecoming » is successful, Cowen analyst Doug Creutz isn’t falling for Disney.
« The question is how much bigger can it get? They’re over half of total industry profitability already, with industry profitability declining, » he said in an interview on « Closing Bell. » « So while I expect Disney studio to continue to do well, I think the prospects for them to do better than they are now are pretty low. »
Creutz said he doesn’t particularly like any movie studio stocks. His favorite media company right now is CBS because it doesn’t have film studio.
« We’ve been increasingly bearish for a few years now, » Creutz said. « Attendance is declining, budgets are going up and studio profitability is shrinking. »
Dergarabedian has higher hope for the movie industry. His winners are Disney, 20th Century Fox, Warner Brothers/Time Warner and Universal/Comcast.
Warner Brothers produced « Wonder Woman, » last month’s box office smash. Fox produced spring’s « The Boss Baby » and June’s « Captain Underpants. » Universal produced « Despicable Me 3, » which premiered last month.
Dergarabedian thinks Americans will continue to tune into sequels, but only if the quality is there. « Spider-Man: Homecoming » has gotten solid reviews ahead of its opening weekend.
« We need a box office super hero. We need him now, and he’s here, » Dergarabedian said. So that’s a good thing. »
Disclosure: NBCUniversal is a unit of Comcast, which owns CNBC.
