Tensions on the Korean Peninsula continue to rise. Kim Jong-un has ramped North Korea’s missile and nuclear testing programs, edging closer to possessing nuclear-tipped ICBMs that are capable of targeting the US mainland. US President Donald Trump has exacerbated the tensions with his tough talk…
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula continue to rise. Kim Jong-un has ramped North Korea’s missile and nuclear testing programs, edging closer to possessing nuclear-tipped ICBMs that are capable of targeting the US mainland. US President Donald Trump has exacerbated the tensions with his tough talk, including his remarks that North Korean threats to the United States ‘will be met with fire and fury’.
A war would be a losing proposition for everyone. It would be suicide for Kim Jong-un given the overwhelming power of the combined US-ROK forces. It would be a deadly affair for South Korea, given the North Korean heavy artillery stationed along the border that can target Seoul. Japan would also be in the crosshairs, as would US personnel in the region and beyond.
It is apparent that each side fundamentally misunderstands the other. The risk of misperception and miscalculation leading to accidental military conflict is higher than most realise. There are five main factors that play into the risk.
North Korea does not appear to understand the essence of US foreign policy and strategic thinking. North Korea’s determination to develop ICBMs is motivated by the idea that it will serve as a deterrent against a US invasion. But this is a mistake. The United States will surely not allow a situation where it can be targeted by a North Korean nuclear strike. North Korea must be made to realise that this calculation is flawed. The more success North Korea achieves in developing its ICBMs, the greater the probability that the United States will feel compelled to resort to military options.
The United States does not understand the North Korean national mindset. Historically, the Korean peninsula has been a geopolitical battleground and North Korea has felt threatened from all sides by more powerful nations. The North Korean propaganda machine characterizes the United States as an imperialist power bent on bringing down its government and reminds its citizens daily that the country must be prepared for total war at a moment’s notice. North Korea responds stubbornly to pressure and coercion with defiance and continues to routinely violate UN Security Council resolutions, despite overwhelming pressure from the international community.
