Trump said: « We have missiles that can knock out a missile in the air 97 percent of the time, » but he may be dangerously overconfident.
Asked about the threat North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs pose to the US, Trump said the issue should have been handled in previous administrations, and praised China for its cooperation with a US-led sanctions push against Pyongyang.
But Trump also seemed to put faith in a not-so-reliable element the US’s defense against North Korea.
« We build the greatest military equipment in the world, » Trump told Hannity. « We have missiles that can knock out a missile in the air 97 percent of the time, and if you send two of them, it’s going to get knocked out. »
The exact missile defense system referenced by Trump remains unclear, but the US only has one program designed to protect the mainland from intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM): The ground-based midcourse defense (GMD).
According to Lauren Grego, the senior scientist in the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, the GMD’s « single shot kill probability » for an ICBM is unknown. Even in « optimistic conditions, » Grego gives the GMD about a 50 percent chance of knocking out a single ICBM. By firing four missile interceptors for every incoming ICBM threat, that chance climbs to 94 percent, Grego calculated.
