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N.F.L. Draft Grades: Experts Pick Round 1 Winners and Losers

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The player your team took is great. Or maybe he isn’t.
How did all the teams do in the first round of the N.F.L. draft? We won’t know for sure for a few years. But plenty of people want to weigh in right now.
Here’s a look at the instant grades from CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, For the Win at USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the draft site Walter Football .
According to the experts, there are players who will turn their teams into winners, and others who are already terrible busts. Sometimes it’s the same player.
[Read our analysis of every pick in the first round here.]
Mixed reviews for the top pick, who had looked like he was going to go more like No. 6 a few days ago. “Mayfield will bring a dynamic to the Browns offense that will allow them to do many things because of his mobility and his ability to throw the ball downfield,” said the most optimistic ranker, Bleacher Report. But Benjamin Hoffman of The New York Times raised the chilling specter of another Browns quarterback: “Is Mayfield essentially Johnny Manziel without as much baggage?” And USA Today said, “A lot will have to break right for the Oklahoma standout to end up as the best QB from this class.” Grade point average: 2.62.
Suddenly it seems to be OK to use a top pick on a running back. Most felt the Giants did fine with this pick. Bleacher Report was already speculating about a 1,000-yard season, and Sports Illustrated called him a “once-in-a-generation running back.” The naysayer was USA Today, which felt a quarterback would have been a better choice for the Giants: “He’ll have to be LaDainian Tomlinson for this to be considered a good pick.” GPA: 3.22
A pretty solid thumb’s up for the other New York pick as well. USA Today said, “The Jets gave up too much to move up to the No. 3 pick, but that won’t matter in a couple of years when Darnold develops into one of the league’s best quarterbacks.” “The Jets finally found their quarterback of the future,” said Walter Football. CBS was less excited, feeling Josh Allen or Josh Rosen would have been a better choice. GPA: 3.22.
Another top pick, another B- for the Browns. Defensive end Bradley Chubb was available, making this choice a little puzzling to some. “Maybe the Browns know something we don’t,” USA Today wrote, unconvincingly. Even Bleacher Report, which gave the pick an A- said, “This is a tough one to grade.” GPA: 2.62.
The hands-down best pick of the top 5, the experts believe. “A pass rush consisting of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb is going to result in pure carnage for opposing offensive lines,” Bleacher Report said. Many thought the Broncos would take a quarterback, but few faulted this pick. GPA: 3.92.
The highest grade of the draft, even higher than Chubb, went to Derwin James, the safety selected by the Chargers at No. 17. The strong consensus had been that he would go much higher, giving the Chargers a steal this low. With three A+’s, two A’s and just one B, his GPA was a 3.98. “James is an explosive athlete who can be an enforcer in the box, cover slot receivers or play deep safety,” wrote USA Today.
Good grades also for these three picks: Roquan Smith (Bears, No. 8) “Feels like the Bears got the next great young linebacker,” Yahoo. Josh Rosen (Cardinals, No. 10) “The best quarterback in the draft,” Bleacher Report. Lamar Jackson (Ravens, No. 32) “An electric talent who will benefit from sitting behind Flacco,” Bleacher Report.
The worst pick of the first round, according to the experts? Rashaad Penny, a running back taken by the Seahawks at No. 27. CBS gave the pick a C, and that was the high point. He also got a C-, a D+ and three Ds. Many felt Penny was a solid player but that wasting a first-round pick on a decent running back was a mistake. “Penny was seen as a second- or third-round prospect among teams,” wrote Walter Football. GPA: 1.33.
Two others that graded below a C: defensive end Marcus Davenport, taken by the Saints at No. 14 (“This is absolutely atrocious,” Walter Football) and safety Terrell Edmunds, taken by the Steelers at No. 28 (“Edmunds is more of Day 3 pick,” Bleacher Report).
No player divided opinion more than Josh Allen, the Wyoming quarterback who at one point was considered a candidate to go No. 1 overall. The Bills got him at No. 7 after a trade with the Buccaneers, and the grades ranged from an A+ to F. Pete Prisco of CBS could not have liked it more: “They get the best QB in the draft and they had to go make the move to get him. Love the trade, love the pick.”
Steven Ruiz at For the Win of USA said: “Allen is inaccurate, struggles to read defenses and is uncomfortable from the pocket. Other than that, he’s a pretty good quarterback.” He also reminded readers that last season the Bills at one point opted for Nathan Peterman over Tyrod Taylor.
One of them may be right. It may take a few years, but eventually we’ll find out.

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