At a time when American intelligence says Kim Jong Un will do just about anything to conceal the real extent of North Korea’s nuclear program, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is in Pyongyang to find out exactly what he can prise from the reclusive regime.
For Kim Jong Un, his window for offering anything other than tangible measures is closing. In the absence of public timelines over what he will or will not do and when, there is something of a hard deadline he will need to get ahead of, say North Korea experts.
« Between now and the middle of August he has to do something substantive to show good faith, or we will reconvene the exercises, » said David Maxwell, a retired US Army Special Forces colonel and a fellow at the Institute of Korean American Studies.
The August exercise, named Ulchi Freedom Guardian, had long been scheduled and final planning with several nations’ military forces was well underway when the White House decided to suspend it after the Singapore summit .
Trump said North Korea considered the exercises to be provocative, and that suspending them was important while diplomacy appeared to be working.
Last year, Ulchi Freedom Guardian involved 17,500 US service members, with 3,000 coming from outside South Korea. The drills include practicing readiness under a scenario in which the Korean Peninsula goes from peace to a crisis stage and then into open conflict, according to a defense official.
« This really puts Kim on the spot. He’ll have to put up or shut up, » Maxwell told CNN. « If Pompeo brings back a declaration of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, where they are, and what they have or at least an agreement to provide an accounting, that would be significant. If he gets blown off completely, then things are done. »
Bringing dead Americans home
More than likely, however, is a scenario in which Kim sends Pompeo back to Washington with another vague promise, but with something else that may satisfy Trump in the short term — some of the remains of American troops killed during the Korean War.
Trump had said that Kim committed to repatriating the remains shortly after the summit in June. When Pompeo testified before a Senate Appropriations Committee last month, he acknowledged that the transfer had yet to take place.
« We are intent on denuclearization, make no mistake about it, » Pompeo said. « But we are also intent on getting back as many remains of Americans as possible. We are dogged in trying to facilitate this as quickly as we can. »
Maxwell says North Korea’s delay in returning the remains is not an act of good faith.
« North Korea has already damaged its reputation with the remains. They should have returned those immediately. I hear they have as many as thousands and they are simply holding them hostage.
