Tom Brady and the Patriots taking on Houston’s Deshaun Watson; a clash of the last two N. F. C. champions; Aaron Rodgers in prime time. Week 1 has a lot to offer.
With Tom Brady having turned 41 last month, the N.F.L. still has its face of the present, but it should be on the lookout for its face of the future. Could Deshaun Watson, the second-year quarterback for the Houston Texans, whom Brady and the New England Patriots just happen to be facing this week, be his successor? What about Jimmy Garoppolo of the San Francisco 49ers, who last season got out from under Brady’s considerable shadow? There’s always Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles, though he has to make it back from a devastating knee injury first.
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Khalil Mack of the Chicago Bears, Jalen Ramsey of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Odell Beckham Jr. of the Giants are probably wondering why the face of the N.F.L. needs to be a quarterback. Each has the talent and personality to make an argument for himself.
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Week 1 brings a fresh start for everyone — even the Cleveland Browns. A look ahead to this week’s games shows several intriguing matchups. As it did last season, The New York Times will be picking games against the spread rather than simply picking winners.
Texans at Patriots, 1 p.m., CBS
At times last season, it seemed Deshaun Watson, the Texans’ rookie quarterback, could do anything he wanted on a football field. In a four-game stretch, he threw for 1,171 yards and 16 touchdowns while Houston’s offense averaged 40.5 points a game. It resulted in only a 2-2 record, but both losses were competitive, and the second one, a shootout against Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, was easily one of the N.F.L.’s most entertaining games of the year.
As quickly as he arrived, though, Watson was gone. He tore an anterior cruciate ligament in practice after the Seattle loss and missed the rest of the season. The Texans never recovered. Watson is healthy and ready to lead his team at New England, where the Texans have never won. He’ll get some help from J. Watt, the dominant defensive end, who has also recovered from a season-ending leg injury.
The edge in talent and coaching goes to the Patriots, but there are reasons to believe this game will be close, if not an upset. Brady will be hurting for receiving targets: Brandin Cooks was traded, Danny Amendola left via free agency and Julian Edelman is suspended. The offense may get a little more help from the running game, with the rookie Sony Michel working his way to N.F.L.-ready. But even with Brady’s magic touch of making virtually any receiver seem like a star, there may be too many missing pieces for the Patriots to be quite so unbeatable. Pick: Texans +6.5
Falcons at Eagles, 8:20 p.m. (Thursday), NBC
The N.F.L. could hardly have picked a better showcase for opening night: two teams that are incredibly deep on both sides of the ball. There might be some rust, as key offensive contributors sat out for most of the preseason, but these model franchises have represented the N. F. C. in the last two Super Bowls, and there is a decent chance one will be back this season.
The focus of many will be on the absence of Carson Wentz, Philadelphia’s starting quarterback, and while the severity of his knee injury and the team’s ambiguous answers about his status are fodder for conversation, there should be no shortage of other things to talk about.
Philadelphia’s defensive line, which proved so disruptive last season, is back, and with the addition of Michael Bennett, it might even be better. Atlanta’s offense already had two elite running backs, a deep receiving corps that features one of the two best wideouts in the world and a quarterback capable of taking full advantage. Added to that mix is the rookie wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who may not put up huge numbers right away but is in an ideal situation to thrive.
The Eagles are barely favorites at home, thanks to Wentz and Alshon Jeffery’s being out, and that’s a blessing for bettors: Philadelphia is likely to win, but probably not by much. Pick: Eagles -1.5
49ers at Vikings, 1 p.m., Fox
Jimmy Garoppolo has the looks of a superstar, has recently become incredibly wealthy and has never lost a game in the N.F.L. (He is 7-0 in starts in his four-year career.) The enthusiasm around him is justified even if San Francisco’s improvement at the end of last season was at least somewhat of a mirage. The key for 49ers fans will be to maintain that enthusiasm once he hits his first few speed bumps, which could start this week against a talented Vikings team that, thanks to the addition of Kirk Cousins and the reintroduction of Dalvin Cook, could be even better than it was last year. Pick: Vikings -6.5
Bears at Packers, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Khalil Mack, Chicago’s prized new linebacker, is so good that when you hear a team gave up two first-round picks to get him, and then signed him to one of the largest contracts in N.F.L. history, you grimace and slowly start to shrug and nod. It’s the transaction equivalent of the famous Alonzo Mourning GIF.
“He makes this defense just a little bit more ferocious,” Akiem Hicks, a Bears defensive end, told reporters, before clarifying and saying it made it “a lot bit more ferocious.”
Can Mack be the difference in this mostly dormant rivalry? Yes. Is he one of the best weapons in the N.F.L. for combating Aaron Rodgers’s mastery? Yes. Is that going to be enough for a second-year starter at quarterback, Mitch Trubisky, to beat Rodgers and the Packers, in Green Bay, in a nationally televised game? C’mon. Chicago, though, just might keep the game close. Pick: Bears +7.5
Steelers at Browns, 1 p.m., CBS
Bud Light has set up Victory Fridges in 10 bars in Cleveland. They are stocked with 200 bottles of beer and will be unlocked whenever the Browns, who have gone 1-31 over the last two seasons, win a game. They may not stay locked for long. Yes, the Steelers are road favorites. Yes, the recent history of both teams indicates this should be a laugher. But the Steelers repeatedly played down to their competition last season; Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers’ most important player, is holding out; and Cleveland made enough improvements on offense and defense that Browns fans might be drinking free on Sunday. Pick: Browns +3.5
Jaguars at Giants, 1 p.m., Fox
Jalen Ramsey said a lot of outlandish things about quarterbacks and teams in the N.F.L. in an interview with GQ this off-season. While it inspired a lot of hand-wringing from the game’s old guard, it was also hard to argue with several of his points. His summation of the Giants was far more generous than most received: “It’s not really Eli. I think it’s Odell. I won’t say Eli’s good, I’ll say Odell’s good. And their connection is good.” Based on Odell Beckham Jr.’s recent contract extension, it seems the Giants agree. Pick: Jaguars -3
Buccaneers at Saints, 1 p.m., Fox
There is little doubt the Saints will win this game. Even with Mark Ingram serving a suspension, the New Orleans offense is a thing of beauty. Alvin Kamara, despite being small in stature, is poised to become an even bigger star than he was as a rookie last year. The only drama is whether the Saints can cover the large spread. Pick: Buccaneers +9.5
Cowboys at Panthers, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Cowboys are 19-6 in Ezekiel Elliott’s starts over the last two seasons, and were 3-3 in the games he missed as a result of a suspension. With Elliott, a third-year running back, no longer dealing with legal entanglements, the world can get back to crediting Dak Prescott for Dallas’s top-notch offense. Pick: Cowboys +3
Chiefs at Chargers, 4:05 p.m., CBS
It is hard to imagine a better situation for a first-year starter at quarterback like Patrick Mahomes than having the option of going to Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce or Sammy Watkins on any given play.
