James Carafano Security, Americas Trump’s INF Treaty Termination Puts China on Notice—At Last Most of the debate over the administration’s decision to leave the…
James Carafano
Security, Americas
Trump’s INF Treaty Termination Puts China on Notice—At Last
Most of the debate over the administration’s decision to leave the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is missing the point. Thus far, the commentary has focused on whether the decision bodes good or ill for arms control and nuclear proliferation.
That’s small ball. By pulling out of the INF Treaty, President Donald Trump is making a big statement about great-power competition.
From Checkers to Chess
When the administration said it wanted out of the decades-old treaty meant to limit cruise and ballistic missiles in the range of 500 to 3,500 miles, the responses proved predictable. Arms-control advocates registered outrage. Russian president Vladimir Putin pouted. Europe experienced angst. Advocates for abandoning the treaty no doubt traded high-fives.
Admittedly, the immediate issue is about the treaty and concerns over Russian compliance. The State Department has made the case that Moscow is cheating. Russia has deployed at least two battalions of the Novator 9M729 land-based cruise missile (known to NATO as the SSC-8). Given its range, this is a clear violation of the terms of the INF Treaty.
Of course, Russian cheating is nothing new. It’s been going on since at least 2014. President Barack Obama’s team raised the issue with the Russians but did little more than send diplomatic notes.
Shortly after coming into office, President Donald Trump warned Putin to clean up his INF Treaty act. The United States has given Moscow multiple opportunities to come back into compliance with the INF Treaty.
