Russian ships attacked Ukrainian vessels in the Kerch Strait, blocking access to the Crimea-hugging Sea of Azov.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have reached their most dangerous moment in years — one that has the potential to ignite a new phase in the deadly conflict.
Here’s what happened: On Sunday, Russian ships fired on three Ukrainian vessels in the Kerch Strait — a critical passage connecting the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov — injuring at least six sailors. Moscow’s crew has since boarded Kiev’s two warships and one tugboat, detaining more than 20 sailors, and even placed a freighter ship length-wise along the only entrance in and out of the strait.
Kiev is unhappy. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has announced that he wants to declare martial law for at least the next 30 days, allowing his country to mobilize forces more quickly.
Meanwhile, the UN Security Council — where Russia is a permanent member with the authority to singlehandedly veto any measure — met on Monday morning to discuss the situation.
The standoff centers on the continued dispute over Crimea. Russia annexed the peninsula from Ukraine nearly five years ago and has since tightened its grip on it. In May, for example, Russian President Vladimir Putin inaugurated a 12-mile bridge over the Kerch Strait connecting Crimea to mainland Russia despite Ukraine’s protests.
The Kremlin’s goal is to bring the land and waters around Crimea completely under Russian control. That’s partly why it fired on the Ukrainian ships: as a way of asserting its dominance over the waterway.
So far, only a war of words has broken out, with each side blaming the other for what happened. Poroshenko called the move “an act of aggression;” Russia’s foreign ministry said Ukraine was responsible for the “well-thought-out provocation.” But the skirmish has the potential to grow into an even bigger fight if Russia uses warships and warplanes to keep Ukrainian vessels out of the Sea of Azov.
The dispute could also become a major test for President Donald Trump as he decides how — or if — to respond to Russia’s aggression. Pressure is already mounting from Congress and analysts for the US to respond forcefully against Russia, or risk letting Moscow get away with it.
“This is Russia taking advantage of Donald Trump for its own gain, operating under an, ‘I can do what I want and no one will stop me’ attitude,” Evelyn Farkas, a top Pentagon official for Ukraine and Russia from 2012 to 2015, told me.
The Trump administration has so far offered mixed signals, with UN Ambassador Nikke Haley saying that Moscow’s moves are “another reckless Russian escalation” and Trump claiming that “We don’t like what’s happening either way” — seemingly not putting the blame on the Kremlin.
If Trump chooses not to respond more forcefully, then it’s possible Russia will only escalate its actions in the Kerch Strait and possible NATO territory in the future.
