It’s Week 10 of college football, and for the teams in the top half of the first College Football Playoff rankings, every week is…
It’s Week 10 of college football, and for the teams in the top half of the first College Football Playoff rankings, every week is basically a play-in game. Although winning doesn’t guarantee them a spot because there are only four, with the exception of perhaps just two teams, a loss will almost certainly eliminate them from contention.
So for those who remain furious there are only four playoff spots in college football or who are baffled by the sport’s inability to concoct another solution, that’s how you need to approach the final few weeks of the regular season. Win and your team remains in the hunt, lose and you’re (probably) done.
And because of this, there are several games this weekend with playoff implications, so we’re here to break them down.
Note: No. 12 in the playoff rankings, UCF beat Temple on Thursday night and remains undefeated. But it’s hope for the playoff is still a long shot.
Game time: 8 p.m. ET Channel: CBS Going into this game, the closest the Crimson Tide has come to losing was its 45-23 win over Texas A&M back in Week 4. With the best offense in the country, Alabama has cruised to victories in every game so far this season, but the Tigers could prove to be the first real test for a couple reasons. LSU is seventh in the country in defense efficiency (Alabama is second), and it’s in a three-way tie at No. 1 for interceptions this season with 14, along with Maryland and Fresno State.
That’s great for the Tigers and all – plus a surely wild environment in Death Valley – but the problem is Alabama quarterback and Heisman Trophy favorite Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 25 touchdown passes so far and not a single interception. He’s averaging more than 13 yards per pass and has a 70.4 completion percentage. Plus, coming off the bye week – though LSU had the week off too – Tagovailoa told reporters he has recovered from his knee sprain and is at 100 percent.
LSU is ranked No. 3 in the opening College Football Playoff projections, and an upset over Alabama as a two-touchdown underdog would likely send the Tigers to the SEC championship game. Hypothetically if they won that as well, it would be impossible for the selection committee to deny them a playoff spot. But an in-conference loss Saturday would knock them out of contention.
Alabama is one of the teams that could lose a game this season and still make the playoff, like last year. A loss to LSU would knock the Crimson Tide out of the SEC championship game, but assuming it wins its remaining games against Mississippi State, The Citadel and Auburn, it’s reasonable to think Alabama will make the playoff, along with the conference champion. A win, however, keeps Nick Saban’s team in control of the SEC West and on track to face the winner of this week’s Georgia-Kentucky game. So speaking of…
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET Channel: CBS After Kentucky’s controversial win over Missouri last weekend, the winner of this game will represent the SEC East in the conference championship game. The key for the Wildcats is their defense, which is currently nationally ranked at No. 1 in scoring defense, along with Clemson, and No. 12 in total defense. (Georgia is Nos. 12 and 15, respectively, in those categories.) If Kentucky’s defense can shut down Bulldogs quarterback Jake Fromm and stifle the run game, it will have a good chance at the upset.
But if the defense can’t stop Georgia, the Wildcats’ offense might not be able to match the Bulldogs’ scoring potential. Georgia’s defense shouldn’t have too much of a problem containing Kentucky’s 101st-ranked offense, and since the Wildcats’ Week 6 overtime loss to Texas A&M, their last two victories have been by eight points combined. Georgia is a 9-point favorite.
Despite each having a loss, Georgia and Kentucky debuted on the College Football Playoff rankings at No. 6 and No. 9 respectively, while the Bulldogs have a 43 percent chance to make the playoff. But because of those losses, the loser of this game is out of the playoff race, as well as the SEC title game. The winner, should it also win the conference championship, would likely make the playoff.
Game time: 3:45 p.m. ET Channel: ESPN A team with two losses has never made the College Football Playoff, and it doesn’t seem like this Nittany Lions squad is going to be the first to do that. So it’s going for the role of the spoiler more than anything else this weekend. But Penn State hasn’t looked great lately, struggling before eventually putting away Iowa and Indiana most recently and losing to Michigan State and Ohio State before that. Nittany Lions quarterback Trace McSorely is dealing with a knee injury and will play despite not being at 100 percent.
But Michigan is coming in hot with the No. 1 defense in the country and a seven-game win streak since it’s season-opening loss to Notre Dame. Being at home adds another advantage, as does coming off a bye week, and the Wolverines are a 10.5-point favorite.
After Week 9, Michigan has a 37 percent chance to make the playoff and is No. 5 on the initial College Football Playoff rankings. It could move up, depending on the result and score of the Alabama-LSU game, and jump over Georgia in terms of chances if the Bulldogs lose, but that’s all contingent on a victory Saturday. Should Penn State win, that’s probably it for the Wolverines’ playoff hopes.
Game time: 8 p.m. ET Channel: ABC The Sooners need a win this weekend to stay on track to get to the Big 12 championship game, and they’re a 13.5-point favorite. They’re also at No. 7 in the playoff rankings and have a 33 percent shot at the playoff still, but they need to win out, including in the conference title game. With that loss earlier this season to Texas, Oklahoma can’t afford another one if it – and the Big 12 – want to keep hope alive for a playoff berth.
Oklahoma will need some help from the teams ranked higher than it to actually advance to the playoff – we’re looking at Michigan, Georgia, LSU or even Notre Dame – but none of that matters if it doesn’t finish the season with one loss.
