Don’t assume that a broad economic reform process is as urgent for North Korean leaders today as it was for late 1970s China
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un offered few surprises in his annual New Year’s address. As is the wont of North Korean leaders, he characterized the past year as “historic” and touted the successes and progress of the Party and state. In Pyongyang, on the evening of the 31st, crowds filled Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang to welcome the New Year with a concert, many seemingly filming with their smartphones. Kim does have quite a lot to be proud of. In 2018, he held summits with two of the world’s most powerful leaders — Donald Trump and Xi Jinping — and crafted a remarkably positive image of himself among parts of the South Korean public. (For an illustrative example, look no further than this Kim Jong Un face mask manufactured by a South Korean company.)
All the while, regardless of what President Trump claims, Kim never promised to abolish North Korea’s nuclear weapons. To the contrary, in a show of confidence, Kim declared in the spring of 2018 that having successfully created a nuclear deterrent, the state would turn attention to economic development, the second “leg” of the two-pronged Byungjin, dual-track strategy.
During a year when Kim has perhaps talked more and more openly about economic policy change than any of his predecessors, it isn’t surprising that many compare — often with a great deal of hope and anticipation — today’s North Korea with China just prior to its “Reform and Opening,” an economic reform policy started by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, and wait for Kim to announce a change of course. And yet, the year saw no major announcement of a policy change. North Korea’s leader announcing a “focus” on the economy, after all, bears few direct policy implications.
North Korea, however, is not China, and history teaches us something important about the rationale for leaders in announcing systemic overhauls and political breaks. Consider the historical backdrop, geopolitical mentality, and position of China in the 1970s.
Between 1838 and 1949, the official, propagandized narrative of the Chinese Communist Party goes, the country experienced a “century of humiliation.” The country was defeated by Great Britain in the First Opium War (1839–1842), followed by the oft-called “unequal treaties.
