The crowning achievement for Sino-Japan relations would be a trade agreement between the world’s second and third-biggest economies, plus South Korea
It is possible to detect a new dynamic in Northeast Asia as 2019 opens, one that could have significant economic consequences.
Northeast Asia has long been denied its economic potential by being in a state of diplomatic deep freeze. There is a good chance that the thaw between Japan and China will spread to the Korean peninsula and maybe to Russia in 2019.
The post-war order symbolised by US economic dominance was already under challenge before Donald Trump became president of the world’s largest economy in 2016. But he has undermined national power in a way that suggests that US influence will continue to diminish even after he leaves office.
Despite assertions to the contrary, the world’s second-biggest economy (China) is not yet ready, or able to assume the role of a global hegemon. Even the role of Asia’s regional hegemon is not yet fully within reach.
Instead, new alliances among Northeast Asian powers will begin to take shape in 2019. This trilateral alliance will comprise Japan and China, plus South and North Korea. Their growing closeness will make it impossible for giant neighbours to ignore their joint potential. The embryonic Northeast
Asian economic bloc will inevitably draw other Asian nations into its orbit.
The process of uniting Northeast Asia in what initially can be seen as a survival pact or “marriage of convenience” has already begun in the two Koreas. South Korean president Moon Jae-in has been a conscious motivating force behind this, while Trump’s diplomacy has been more an accidental catalyst.
Seoul and Pyongyang have taken tentative steps to link their rail systems to form a trans-peninsula network between the two Koreas with China and the Eurasian continent.
