In her presidential weekly briefing, Samantha Vinograd writes that President Trump must make clear that absent any clear steps toward denuclearization, the US is not giving Kim what he wants the most — sanctions relief and US troop withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula.
When President Donald Trump met Kim Jong Un in June 2018, they came to a vague agreement that North Korea would work toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. But, as Vice President Mike Pence stated last week, North Korea has failed to take concrete steps toward giving up its nuclear weapons, and it still represents a serious nuclear threat.
Though Trump has said that he and Kim fell in love, this is looking more like a one-sided love affair. Kim is getting more of what he wants — including serious US concessions, such as suspension of US-South Korean military exercises — but we’re getting little in return. And while Trump is willing to meet again, any briefing he gets ahead of this summit would likely lay out some assessments that he needs to hear before he sees Kim again:
The truth hurts
North Korea probably has greater nuclear capabilities today than it did at the Singapore summit. In 2017, the US estimated North Korea had up to 60 nuclear warheads, and since that assessment we have seen no indication that the Kim regime has frozen its production of nuclear material or weapons. In fact, in his New Year’s speech earlier this month, Kim actually said that he wouldn’t freeze his nuclear program — let alone dismantle it — unless the US lifts its sanctions.
In fairness, Trump did not get Kim to specifically agree to a freeze when they met in Singapore, and Kim has continued his nuclearization apace. Still, this reality poses a continued risk.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said publicly that North Korea continues to produce fissile material — material used to make nuclear weapons — and there are even reports that North Korea is upgrading its nuclear infrastructure and making more sophisticated weapons.
