Variety’s Awards Editor makes his final calls in all 24 Oscar categories.
At 5 p.m. Tuesday on the west coast it’ll be pencils down for Oscar voters, so to speak. Or maybe in an era of online voting, it’s more like laptops closed. Either way, polling for the 91st annual Academy Awards officially concludes in a few short hours. Five days from now, we’ll find out which films will walk away with little gold men.
Will there be surprises? There always seem to be a few. With the Academy’s membership ranks steadily shifting, growing at a rate of some 900 new voices a year, it’s going to be increasingly difficult to peg down the group’s collective taste. That’s probably a good thing, but it won’t stop us from taking a stab at it.
With that, below are In Contention’s final predictions for this year’s Oscars. We have the Academy spreading the love, with “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “Green Book,” and “Roma” leading the way at three wins apiece, and two each for “The Favourite” and “Vice.”
Read on for our final analyses of all 24 categories, and tune in Feb. 24 to see how right (or wrong) we were.
With this officially being the most wide-open race we’ve ever seen (at least based on precursors), it’s fair to say best picture could go to any of the eight nominees. But “Green Book” has won the Golden Globe (comedy or musical) and producers guild award, while “Roma” has won the directors guild and British Academy (BAFTA) prizes, so it feels like a battle between the two. It may come down to the preferential ballot, used only in this category, and whatever X factor the Academy’s ever-evolving membership represents. My hunch is “Green Book” is more broadly palatable and allows voters who want to put the brakes on Netflix’s ascent to do precisely that. But if there’s a true shocker lurking, it could be drama Globe winner “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which has won the most overall guild/industry group prizes (from the American Cinema Editors, Cinema Audio Society, and Motion Picture Sound Editors, plus a SAG-AFTRA award), and it has been utterly immune, much like “Green Book,” to pointed criticisms this year.
Will win: “Green Book” Could win: “Roma” Should win: “Roma” Should have been here: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Green Book” helmer Peter Farrelly is absent from the lineup here, but the director category has split from best picture four of the last six years. That has become normalized thanks to the preferential ballot. This is one of multiple categories where voters can honor both Alfonso Cuarón and Spike Lee, but the former has emerged as the favorite of the season, winning the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, DGA and BAFTA awards.
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma” Could win: Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman” Should win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma” Should have been here: Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
This category has gone to an actor starring in a biopic 11 of the last 16 years. Either Rami Malek or Christian Bale would make it 12, but Malek, like Cuarón in his category, has been on a tear. The industry has embraced “Bohemian Rhapsody” in spite of, and perhaps even to spite, its embattled director Bryan Singer, and Malek’s trajectory has been at the forefront of that surge.
Will win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” Could win: Christian Bale, “Vice” Should win: Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born” Should have been here: Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”
This might be a closer finish than you think. Glenn Close is overdue and has claimed Golden Globe (drama), Critics’ Choice (albeit in a tie) and SAG-AFTRA honors. Olivia Colman, meanwhile, has also claimed a Golden Globe (comedy) and a Critics’ Choice prize (comedy, though no tie), plus a BAFTA trophy. Is Close’s narrative enough to make the difference in a tight race? Maybe.
Will win: Glenn Close, “The Wife” Could win: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite” Should win: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite” Should have been here: Toni Collette, “Hereditary”
Like Cuarón and Malek, Mahershala Ali has dominated the industry awards circuit in this category. Critics champ Richard E. Grant’s last stand was at the BAFTA awards, where Ali still managed to pull off the win, but he has certainly been a delightful presence on the circuit, and that could help him make up some ground. Ultimately, though, all signs are pointing to Ali.
Will win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” Could win: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Should win: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Should have been here: Brian Tyree Henry, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Speaking of critics champs, Regina King was wildly successful on that circuit, claiming more than 25 awards. But she wasn’t nominated by SAG-AFTRA or the British Academy, where Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”) and Rachel Weisz reigned, respectively. Blunt isn’t a factor at the Oscars, so it could be a race between King and Weisz, but it could also be even more up-for-grabs than that.
Will win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” Could win: Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite” Should win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” Should have been here: Elizabeth Debicki, “Widows”
This is the place voters can easily honor Lee (along with his three co-writers).
