With North Korea diplomacy at an impasse, Trump needs to fundamentally alter his approach and change how the U. S. views the North Korean nuclear issue.
If one were prone to betting, the smart play would be to wager on the U. S.-North Korea denuclearization talks falling apart. This would be unfortunate, but hardly a surprise given the Trump administration’s pursuit of the same failed paradigm that has defined U. S. nuclear diplomacy over the last quarter of a century.
The Trump administration remains confident that economic pain and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un’s desire for economic prosperity will eventually compel North Korea to give away a nuclear weapons program it has spent considerable resources building and refining over decades. Kim is becoming increasingly impatient with Washington’s approach and is expressing his frustration through rhetoric in state media and recently with the first ballistic missile tests in 18 months.
Nearly a year after President Trump and Kim first met in Singapore, diplomacy is at an impasse. If Trump wants to make history managing a problem that has frustrated previous presidents, he must shift the paradigm and change how the U. S. views the North Korean nuclear issue.
It is obvious the current approach will not work. The president is courting failure by focusing almost exclusively on immediate denuclearization up front and at the expense of everything else — including a historic opportunity to establish a comprehensive and durable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
If Trump wants to make more progress on the North Korea file than his predecessors, he must stop fixating on an outcome that is not in the cards.
While the North Koreans have been willing to talk to the United States about their prized nuclear program, Kim has demonstrated no appetite for fully relinquishing it. He would be foolish to disarm, especially unilaterally. Kim may be open to continuing his moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests, but it’s virtually inconceivable he would agree to eliminate his entire program in return for the promise of future sanctions relief.
