The Champions League format only allows a shock winner about once a decade, but COVID-19 has forced UEFA to change the format for this year. And those changes give the underdogs a slightly better chance of European Cup glory.
This season’s Champions League has already thrown up a few surprises, from Paris Saint-Germain’s comeback win against Borussia Dortmund to Atalanta’s fairytale run to the quarter-finals. But COVID-19, and the forced changes to the schedule mean that there could still be plenty of surprises to come.
The modern Champions League format doesn’t allow for shock winners. Its group stage format almost guarantees that the bigger teams progress, usually finishing top of their groups and earning an easier seeded tie for the first knockout round. The double-legged format means the underdog has to win twice to go through, so even if they get a lucky punch in the first leg, they still usually go out. Easier travel around Europe and better scouting mean there are no surprises.
The past saw teams like Steaua Bucharest, Celtic and Nottingham Forest lift Europe’s greatest club trophy. The only shocks in the last 20 years though have been Inter Milan’s win in 2010 and Porto’s win in 2004.
Those two wins were masterminded by Jose Mourinho, whose Tottenham Hotspur side have already crashed out of this season’s Champions League, losing 4-0 on aggregate to RB Leipzig in the Round of 16. But there is still more chance of a shock this season than there has been for some time.
