Why the likelihood of Russian military intervention remains remote, but not out of the question.
You are browsing in private mode. To enjoy all the benefits of our website LOG IN or Create an Account An extraordinary week in Belarus was topped off by the largest opposition rally in the history of the country on Sunday,16 August, a week after widely-disputed elections saw President Alexander Lukashenko returned with 80 per cent of the vote, according to the official tally. After days of violent clashes between police and protesters, Sunday’s demonstration was conducted largely peacefully. A much smaller pro-government rally was addressed by Lukashenko the same day. The BBC’s Russian service estimated that Sunday’s anti-Lukashenko rally drew around 127,000 participants in Minsk alone – equivalent to over six per cent of the city’s population. (The pro-regime rally drew just 13,000, the broadcaster said.) Protesters, buoyed by the relatively permissive attitude of the authorities after days of horrifying violence, are likely to continue meeting through the week. On 17 August, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the opposition leader forced into exile, released a video to announce that she was ready to become “national leader”. Her defiant tone contrasted with a previous video, filmed last week under apparent duress, in which Tikhanovskaya read from a script disavowing the protest movement. That Tikhanovskaya feels confident enough to issue such a defiant message with her husband still imprisoned by the regime demonstrates how quickly the balance of power has shifted in Belarus. Lukashenko is facing significant and growing defiance to his rule. Swathes of the economy are on strike, including workers at the state-owned plants producing tractors and fertilisers, who used to constitute the core of his support base. After a week of terror, something appears to have snapped. Protesters are no longer cowed: even some among an audience of supposed loyalists at a truck factory in Minsk shouted: “Resign!” at the president as he addressed them on Monday,16 August. [See also: The Belarus crisis is a test for Britain and the EU] It now seems clear that Lukashenko does not have the resources to suppress this growing rebellion by himself. The loyalty of the regular army and the rank-and-file police is being increasingly questioned and the protests are spread nationwide, far beyond just the capital – the nightmare scenario for the security forces, who could potentially suppress unrest were it limited to Minsk.
