Are the Bearcats top-four worthy? Should the Dawgs move on from Stetson Bennett? Is the Heisman Kenneth Walker’s to lose?
The first rankings from the College Football Playoff selection committee will be unveiled on Tuesday night, and only one thing seems certain: Georgia will be No.1. The undefeated Bulldogs have been dominant on defense and have already clinched the SEC East. But which teams will come next? Oklahoma is undefeated and has scored more than 50 points in three of its past four games. However, the Sooners earlier struggled to put away West Virginia and, ahem, Kansas. Cincinnati is unbeaten too, but it might have only one victory that actually resonates with the selection committee: a 24-13 road win at Notre Dame. Michigan State is also 8-0 and finally has some meat on its résumé after a 37-33 victory against rival Michigan. And what about the one-loss teams? Defending national champion Alabama might be the second-most talented team behind Georgia, but why did the Crimson Tide’s defense play so poorly in a 41-38 loss at Texas A&M? And while Ohio State is playing like one of the four best teams in the FBS, can the committee really put the Buckeyes ahead of one-loss Oregon? The Ducks have perhaps the best victory of anyone,35-28 at Ohio State on Sept.11. Here are some overreactions as we get ready to see the first CFP rankings: If Cincinnati isn’t among the top four teams in Tuesday night’s rankings, we’re going to hear conspiracies about how the selection committee is just never going to put a Group of 5 team in the CFP, and, dadgumit, it’s not fair. The Bearcats are No.2 in the AP poll and the AFCA coaches poll, so they have to be No.2 in the CFP rankings, right? Well, what if the Bearcats don’t deserve to be in the top four, at least not yet? Sure, Cincinnati’s 11-point win at Notre Dame is one of the better nonconference victories of the season. But who else have the Bearcats defeated so far? One other FBS team with a winning record (5-3 Central Florida) and five other opponents (Miami of Ohio, Indiana, Temple, Navy and Tulane) who are a combined 12-28. When Cincinnati knocked off Indiana and Notre Dame in consecutive games, there was a popular belief that beating two Power 5 opponents and winning the AAC might be enough to get the Bearcats in the playoff. Here’s the problem: The Hoosiers aren’t any good. In fact, they haven’t won a Big Ten game and haven’t even defeated a Power 5 opponent this season. Their two victories came against FCS program Idaho and Western Kentucky. And the Bearcats’ remaining regular-season schedule ranks No.82 and includes just one opponent with a winning record (SMU at 7-1). In my opinion, for whatever that’s worth, Cincinnati deserves to be at about No.6 in the initial CFP rankings, behind Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan State and Oregon (and maybe even Ohio State).
