The start-or-sit dilemma is part of managing a fantasy football team. Having the foresight to start the wide receiver who goes for 100 yards and a touchdown in…
The start-or-sit dilemma is part of managing a fantasy football team. Having the foresight to start the wide receiver who goes for 100 yards and a touchdown in a matchup while sitting a receiver against a shutdown cornerback is one of the keys to victory. For this version of a start-or-sit, I’m going to be listing all relevant fantasy football players each week and placing them into tiers. And to take some of the guesswork out of it, I’ll be leveraging thousands of slate simulations that are based in numberFire’s player projections with dynamic measures for variance, such as quarterback rushing, running back receiving, and receiver target depth. The results will boil down to three tiers: players we should be confident about starting, players we can consider starting whenever we don’t have better alternatives, but who aren’t must-plays and players we should try to bench whenever we do have better alternatives. These players are listed in order of frequency of hitting the stated threshold (i.e. QB12, RB24, WR24, and TE12 performances and higher on the list means more start-able). The groupings reflect a 12-team, single-quarterback league with the following hypothetical in mind: if I had other viable options on my bench or the waiver-wire, should I start this player this week? Players not listed should be presumed sit-worthy in a shallow or standard-sized league, and all fantasy points references and rankings reflect half-PPR scoring. QUARTERBACKS Start with confidence: These players are at least 50% likely to finish the week as a top-12 quarterback, according to the slate simulations. Josh Allen vs. CAR (69%) — Kyler Murray at DET (69%) — Patrick Mahomes at LAC (60%) — Justin Herbert vs. KC (59%) — Tom Brady vs. NO (56%) — Dak Prescott at NYG (54%) — Jalen Hurts vs. WSH (53%) — Aaron Rodgers at BAL (52%) Consider if needed: This tier has odds between 35% and 49% to post a top-12 week. — Tua Tagovailoa vs. NYJ (48%) — Matthew Stafford vs. SEA (44%) — Cam Newton at BUF (40%) — Kirk Cousins at CHI (40%) — Justin Fields vs. MIN (40%) — Russell Wilson at LA (39%) — Jimmy Garoppolo vs. ATL (37%) — Taysom Hill at TB (37%) Tua Tagovailoa draws a top-level streaming matchup against the New York Jets, who are 32nd in numberFire’s adjusted pass defense metrics. Tagovailoa had 273 yards and two touchdowns against them in a Week 11 matchup. He has had only two other full games against bottom-10 adjusted pass defenses. Across that full three-game sample, Tua has averaged 297.7 yards and 2.7 touchdowns with elite efficiency. I don’t agree with how high Cam Newton is in the simulations. He has been benched at times in favor of P.J. Walker and now faces the NFL’s second-ranked adjusted pass defense. If taking a chance on a tough pass defense and a run-first quarterback, give me Taysom Hill against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (sixth in adjusted pass defense). We continue to see Russell Wilson’s underlying efficiency improve. He ranks top 10 in expected completion rate over his past three games while posting expectation-level passing efficiency. Bench if possible: These quarterbacks are under 35% likely (17th or worse) to net a top-12 result and likely aren’t in the one-quarterback-league conversation. Ryan Tannehill at PIT (33%); Teddy Bridgewater vs. CIN (33%); Derek Carr at CLE (32%); Carson Wentz vs. NE (32%); Joe Burrow at DEN (31%); Trevor Lawrence vs. HOU (30%); Ben Roethlisberger vs. TEN (28%); Mac Jones at IND (27%); Taylor Heinicke at PHI (27%); Matt Ryan at SF (24%); Zach Wilson at MIA (21%); Davis Mills at JAC (19%); Mike Glennon vs. DAL (18%); Jared Goff vs. ARI (18%); Case Keenum vs. LV (17%); Lamar Jackson vs. GB (13%)(asterisk); Tyler Huntley vs. GB (05%)(asterisk). — If Lamar Jackson starts, you can start him even though the efficiency has waned. He’d rate out as a high-end Tier 2 play. RUNNING BACKS Start with confidence: These running backs are at least 60% likely to finish the week inside the top 24, according to the slate simulations.
