The unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is proceeding as everyone feared. The Russian military enjoys such an overwhelming qualitative and quantitative advantage that the outcome of …
The unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is proceeding as everyone feared. The Russian military enjoys such an overwhelming qualitative and quantitative advantage that the outcome of the conventional war is not in doubt. The Ukrainian armed forces can slow the Russians down and perhaps inflict significant casualties on them, but they cannot stop them. However, if Russia occupies the country for an extended period, especially its cities, its military advantages will diminish considerably. The invaders could face a protracted and costly insurgency. The Kremlin positioned as many as 190,000 troops and heavy equipment on Ukraine’s borders over the past two months. They prepared to invade the country from three directions: Belarus in the north, Crimea in the South and Russia in the east. So far, the Russian attack has proceeded as anticipated. In the early hours of Feb.24, land- and sea-launched missiles struck military bases, air defense systems and other targets throughout the country while artillery shelled border positions. These measures prepared the way for a ground assault. Amphibious forces attacked Odessa and land units advanced on Kharkiv and Kyiv. The capital will probably fall within days. The big question now is what happens next. Putin clearly wants regime change, and that will require occupying much of the country for some time. Such an occupation could prove costly. Both the United States and Russia have learned the hard way that invading a country is much easier than occupying it. U.S. forces invaded Iraq on March 20, 2003. By April 4, they had reached Baghdad, and by April 13, they controlled all but isolated pockets of resistance. The conventional operation (described as “shock and awe”) proved so successful that former President George W. Bush landed on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln on May 1 to declare “ mission accomplished. ” Nothing could have been further from the truth. The U.S. soon found itself battling an extensive insurgency it was ill equipped to fight. Iraq’s dense urban environment neutralized many advantages of America’s high-tech, maneuver-warfare army. The MIA Abrams tank was a formidable weapon in an armored battle but useless for patrolling the streets of Baghdad.
