« It’s a bit of a gung ho attitude coming from the public, » said Matti Pesu of the the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
Leaders in Sweden and Finland are facing a high-stakes dilemma as public opinion and political trends push them closer towards NATO membership, which itself could spark a confrontation with Russia that both nations have been trying to avoid for generations. Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine has set off a diplomatic chain reaction, aligning the West—i.e. NATO, the European Union, and their partners—against President Vladimir Putin ‘s revanchist imperialism. Both are close NATO partners already but are not protected by the alliance’s Article 5 joint defense clause. Even before the invasion began last week, Swedes were drifting closer to NATO. A January poll by national broadcaster SVT found that 37 percent of all respondents said yes to NATO membership, versus 35 percent who said no. In 2017, another poll found 32 percent support for membership versus 43 percent against. And in Finland, a survey published this week by broadcasting company Yle found that for the first time in history a majority of 53 percent of respondents supported joining NATO. Finns also forced parliament to debate the idea after 50,000 signed up to a citizens initiative to have membership discussed by lawmakers. Politicians and officials in both countries are seemingly trying to rein public enthusiasm for fear of the consequences. The prospect of Sweden and Finland joining NATO was enough to prompt Moscow to threaten « military and political consequences » for any potential membership bids. The Swedish Foreign Ministry told Newsweek Stockholm « is not changing its line of not joining NATO, but we deepen our relations with NATO even further. » The ministry did acknowledge « a changing security situation in Europe, » adding: « We have to make a thorough analysis and see what consequences this has for Swedish security. » A senior diplomatic official, who did not wish to be named, was more candid. « The stakes are higher » since the latest Russian invasion of Ukraine began last week, they said.
