Apple’s teams have plotted a path that makes Macs more than relevant all over again, but this revolution comes in the middle of very challenging times.
This spring, spare a thought for Apple’s operations, silicon, and hardware development teams. Those people will probably be trying to test heavily disguised hardware containing the first M2 processors to roll off the TSMC production line. And they’ll be doing so while attempting to surreptitiously build and test production capacity – all in the context of a pandemic that threatens to shutter global tech supply lines. This doesn’t sound like an easy job. On the surface, we may be looking at the next phase in Apple’s silicon development plans, in which the final M1-series Mac appears to be followed by the introduction of the M2 chip (with a 3nm Mac processor not terribly far behind and likely to appear in 2024). But behind these plans sit a host of uncertainties the company’s teams need to manage. Take raw materials, for example. We know there’s shortages of some of these because of the war in Ukraine. We haven’t yet assessed the impact of grain price increases in developing nations on access to hard-to-get materials such as rare earth components. We have no insight whatsoever into any challenges securing supplies of neon and other materials for use in Apple/TSMC’s chip-cutting machines. We can’t know what impact all these additional challenges combined with shutdowns in key manufacturing centers in China will have on the company’s ability to secure supply of some of the more mundane components on which its products also rely. What we think will happen in the next few months is that Apple will introduce its highest-end M1 series Mac Pro, followed by the first M2-powered systems in fall. Those M2 Macs are likely to be accompanied by an M2-powered iPad Pro on a cadence in which all Macs and iPads are upgraded with new processors in the subsequent 18 to 24 months.
