Georgia is expected be a hard-fought presidential battleground once again in 2024, making any shifts in the state’s electorate important for both parties.
When Raphael G. Warnock defeated Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) in a runoff election last year, delivering Senate control to Democrats, he prevailed by winning big in Atlanta and its swelling suburbs, as well as turning out Democratic voters across the state.
But the coalition that elected Warnock last year and the electorate that turned out in November when Warnock was up for reelection was subtly different — a notable shift in a closely divided state.
Warnock ran 2.4 percentage points ahead of his 2021 margin in Fulton County, a Democratic bastion that includes most of Atlanta. But he did about the same in the state’s suburban counties. And he ran slightly worse in Georgia’s rural counties, including those that are majority Black. He finished ahead of his Republican rival, Herschel Walker, but neither of them secured 50 percent of the vote, triggering Tuesday’s runoff election.
Democrats have proved they can win in Georgia — President Biden carried the state in 2020, and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) prevailed in his 2021 runoff — but the state is hardly blue territory. Stacey Abrams, the Democratic nominee for governor this year, lost her race, as did every other Democrat running for statewide office. Georgia is expected be a hard-fought presidential battleground once again in 2024, making any shifts in the state’s electorate important for both parties.
Shift in Warnock’s two-party vote share
between the Jan. ’21 runoff and
Nov. ’22 general
Higher share
Lower share
1
3
5
Percentage point difference:
Urban counties
+2.4
Atlanta
Suburban counties
About even (-0.2)
Augusta
Savannah
Columbus
Rural counties
-1.7
Atlanta
Shift in Warnock’s two-party vote share between the Jan. ’21 runoff and Nov. ’22 general
1
3
5
Higher share
Percentage point difference:
Lower share
Urban counties
Suburban counties
Rural counties
About even (-0.2)
-1.7
+2.4
Augusta
Atlanta
Atlanta
Columbus
Savannah
One weak spot for Warnock in November was rural Georgia. Walker improved upon Loeffler’s margins in rural counties by nearly 2 points — it just wasn’t enough to make up for Warnock’s advantage in Atlanta and its suburbs.
Final push for votes in Georgia runoff tests parties’ sway in battleground
Overall, Warnock performed about the same in the suburbs as he did in 2021, but he did gain ground in some suburban counties — especially those in Atlanta’s inner suburbs.
No suburban county moved further in Warnock’s direction than Henry County in Atlanta’s southern suburbs, where Warnock ran 2.2 percentage points ahead of his margin in the 2021 runoff.
Henry County’s population has doubled since 2000, rising to about 240,000. White residents have moved away in recent years, according to census data, but Black residents have arrived even faster, transforming the county from one with a White majority to one with a Black plurality.
The county’s politics have shifted, too. Voters there backed Hillary Clinton by a narrow margin in 2016 after decades of backing Republicans, even as they voted to reelect Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson. Biden carried the county by 20 points in 2020; Warnock won by even more.
