Array
Excluding the 2.2% expansion after the initial COVID hit in 2020, it’s the worst showing since 1976 – the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution that wrecked the economy. Other indicators for December such as retail sales and factory output, also released along with GDP data, beat expectations but were still weak. « Activity data in December surprised broadly to the upside, but remains weak, particularly across demand-side segments such as retail spending, » Louise Loo, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note. The » data so far supports our long-held view that China’s reopening boost will be somewhat anaemic at the beginning, with consumer spending being a key laggard in the initial stages, » Loo said. Others including Hao Zhou, chief economist at GTJAI, expect a steady improvement in consumption and investment, underpinned by China’s reopening and government-led infrastructure investment. Growth is likely to rebound to 4.9% in 2023, as Chinese leaders move to tackle some key drags on growth – the « zero-COVID » policy and a severe property sector downturn, according to a Reuters poll. Most economists expect growth to pick up from the second quarter.
