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A Washington jury put down a marker that could protect generations of future elections by finding four Proud Boys extremists guilty of the seditious conspiracy of trying to violently thwart the transfer of presidential power.
But what about the next election?
Thursday’s verdict only added to the intrigue surrounding the gravest legal and political unknown from the 2021 Capitol insurrection that hangs over the 2024 campaign: will Donald Trump, the president who inspired the uprising, face his own legal and political price?
This is not simply vital to the question of whether justice applies equally to everyone in society, no matter how powerful they might be. It’s also fundamental to the historical accounting still unfolding over one of the most flagrant attacks on American democracy and may go some way to undermining Republican efforts to blur the truth of what happened on that terrible day.
But the legal uncertainty facing Trump – who appears in jeopardy in multiple investigations springing from his election denialism and other alleged transgressions – comes with a related political question. Even if the ex-president is charged with trying to overthrow the core principle of democracy – the peaceful transfer of power – will it ultimately hurt his 2024 campaign?
The former president is betting that it won’t. He’s spent two years denying the truth of January 6 and has anchored his 2024 campaign for a non-consecutive second term to the premise that he was illegally ousted from power in 2020. If the nascent Republican nominating contest is any guide, Trump’s legacy of disgrace is unlikely to scare off Republican primary voters, many of whom seem to be warming to him after his slow start. And that’s despite his indictment in a hush money case in New York. (He’s pleaded not guilty to charges of falsifying business records.)
President Joe Biden, however, has made a counter bet. The first scene of his reelection announcement video released last month showed smoke rising over the US Capitol and rioters with Trump flags. Whatever the liabilities of his own bid, including his advanced age, low approval ratings and an unpredictable economy, the current commander in chief is beseeching Americans not to trust their democracy to a predecessor who came close to overturning it in early 2021.
The legal complications facing Trump and Garland
Given the fraught situation, the Justice Department’s next moves will be hugely significant.
“Today’s verdict makes clear the Justice Department will do everything in its power to defend the American people and American democracy,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said after prosecutors secured convictions against the Proud Boys extremists in a historic case Thursday.
But Garland walked away from the cameras and didn’t take a question – presumably because he’s not yet ready to answer the one that is on the nation’s lips, about Trump.
In cases directly related to the 2020 election, the former president is being investigated by special counsel Jack Smith over his actions running up to the insurrection. He’s also waiting to find out whether he and his political cronies will be charged in an investigation in Fulton County, Georgia, over his attempt to steal Biden’s victory in the Peach State.
Thursday’s Proud Boys convictions are among the most significant of hundreds of successful Justice Department prosecutions of people linked to the US Capitol riot.
