Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA), a fourth-term conservative who is currently the vice chairman of the House GOP conference, has the Speaker’s gavel within reach and seems to be on the brink of ascending into the presidential line of succession on Wednesday afternoon.
When the House gavels in at noon, it is certainly possible that Johnson–a former conservative talk radio host and columnist who has been active in the religious liberty world of the American right–emerges as the 56th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Johnson on Tuesday evening became the House Republicans’ Speaker-designate, after a multi-ballot vote that came immediately after House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s candidacy fizzled slightly more than four hours after he won the same position. But something interesting happened for Johnson after he won the internal election following several rounds of voting: On a roll call vote in conference behind closed doors, not a single member voted against him–and only a handful voted present. One of those present votes in conference, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), now says he will back Johnson on the floor on Wednesday. But there were close to 20 absences, many of whom are expected to back Johnson on the floor, so it is as of yet uncertain.
For Johnson to win the Speakership, assuming all members of both parties are present and vote for a person, he would need 217 votes since there are two vacancies in the House right now. There are 221 voting Republicans, which means Johnson could only afford to lose four members. Since there are 212 voting Democrats, if Republicans have any present votes Johnson would need to put up at least 213 votes and depending on the vote math not have anyone voting against him, or very few.
It’s been a wild ride for House Republicans since former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted from his position more than three weeks ago now. In the immediate aftermath of McCarthy’s ouster, House Republicans first elevated Johnson’s fellow Louisianan the House Majority Leader Steve Scalise as the Speaker-designate. Scalise’s candidacy failed, and he never even went to the floor. After Scalise, Republicans turned to House Judiciary Committee chairman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), who tried three separate floor votes during the week in which he was Speaker-designate, but a total of 25 intransigents blocked him from getting the gavel. After that, the House GOP turned to Emmer, who like Scalise never went to the floor but unlike Scalise and Jordan held an in-conference roll call vote away from the prying public eyes. The opposition to Emmer was deeper than it was for Jordan, with 26 stalwarts against him–a number that exploded in growth after former President Donald Trump, the 2024 GOP frontrunner for president, stabbed him with a dagger of a post on Truth Social knifing any shot Emmer had of getting the job. The damage was done and Emmer withdrew his candidacy moments later.
After that, it seemed hopeless for House Republicans and some were even floating some kind of a McCarthy comeback with Jordan as “assistant Speaker.” But as those discussions were turning from whispers into a possibility, Johnson quietly amassed mass support from all corners of the House GOP conference and posted an impressive roll call vote that saw zero GOP defectors despite a handful of present votes and a dozen or so absences.
