The numbers are classified, but U.S. military planners use what’s called a collateral damage estimate to gauge how many civilians might be killed in an attack on a target. Here’s what that means.
Israel is coming under mounting criticism for its actions in Gaza where more than 11,000 people have been killed, according to Palestinian officials, the vast majority of them civilians. This follows Hamas’s attack on Israel last month that killed 1,400 people.
Targeting civilians is a war crime. But what if there are civilians in or near a legitimate military target? This is where something in the laws of war called « proportionality » comes into play. As in, the military advantage must be proportionate to the loss of civilian life.
In such a case, the U.S. military uses what’s called a « collateral damage estimate, » or CDE, which determines how many civilians would be killed or wounded when a military target is hit, says Michel Paradis, a human rights lawyer who teaches at Columbia Law School.
And then you get into how valuable is the target. If it’s a member of al-Qaida plotting the next attack, the calculus may include the possible collateral death of one or two civilians, but if the target, for instance, is Osama bin Laden, then a higher number of likely civilian deaths may be considered acceptable. The numbers are generated by military and civilian officials and are classified. And a decision to strike that target could go up the chain of command, depending on the number of casualties.
« This is an oversimplification, » said Paradis, « but for example if the CDE is 1, then a lieutenant can order the strike.
