No one alive has seen a race like this.
No one alive has seen a race like the 2024 presidential election. For months, if not years, many people have expected a reprise of the 2020 election, a matchup between the sitting president and a former president.
That didn’t prevent a crowded primary. On the GOP side, more than a dozen candidates announced campaigns against Trump, but that’s down to just Nikki Haley. The former president’s lead appeared prohibitive even before his landslide victory in the Iowa caucuses, but no candidate has ever won his party’s nomination while facing four (so far) separate felony indictments. (Then again, no one has ever lost his party’s nomination while facing four separate felony indictments either.) Haley supplanted Ron DeSantis as the leading challenger to Trump and forced him out of the race, and she hopes to pull out a win in New Hampshire, but her path after that is dark.
On the other side, Democratic hesitations about a second Joe Biden term have mostly dissolved into resignation that he’s running, but Representative Dean Phillips is making a last-ditch effort to offer a younger alternative. Biden’s age and the generally lukewarm feeling among some voters have ensured that a shadow field still lingers, just waiting in case Biden bows out for some reason.
Behind all of this, the possibility of a serious third-party bid, led by either No Labels or some other group, continues to loom; heterodox progressives Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are both running as independents. It adds up to a race that feels like a bit of a circus on the surface but is steaming steadily toward a long-expected conclusion.This guide to the candidates—who’s in, who’s out, and who’s somewhere in between—serves as a road map to navigate that. It will be updated as the campaign develops, so check in regularly.
Who is he?
You know him and you love him. Or hate him. Probably not much in between.
Is he running?
Yes. Trump announced his bid to return to the White House at Mar-a-Lago in November 2022.
Why does he want to run?
Revenge, boredom, rivalry, fear of prosecution, long-standing psychological hang-ups.
Who wants him to run?
A big tranche of the GOP was always fully behind Trump, and as his rivals have failed to gain much traction, he’s consolidated many of the rest and built an all-but-prohibitive lead.
Can he win the nomination?
Yes, and he very likely will.
What else do we know?
More than we could possibly want to.
Who is he?
The second-term governor of Florida, DeSantis was previously a U.S. representative.
Is he running?
No. He dropped out on January 21, two days before the New Hampshire primary.
Why did he want to run?
DeSantis tried to synthesize Trump-style culture warring and the conservative politics of the early-2010s Republican Party, suggesting he’d be like Trump, only more so and more effectively.
Who wanted him to run?
In the end, not many people. Though he was once thought to be the favorite, he never figured out how to peel off Trump voters who liked the original fine, and donors tired of his expensive, directionless campaign.
Could he have won the nomination?
Maybe a more competent campaign would have fared better—it’s already been labeled the worst ever by some journalists and operatives—but DeSantis also revealed himself to be a clumsy and unappealing candidate, which is hard to overcome.
Who is she?
Haley, the daughter of immigrants, was governor of South Carolina and then ambassador to the United Nations under Trump.
Is she running?
Yes. She announced her campaign on February 14, saying, “Time for a new generation.”
Why does she want to run?
Haley has tried to steer a path that distances herself from Trump—pointing out his unpopularity—without openly attacking him. She may also be the top foreign-policy hawk in the field.
Who wants her to run?
As DeSantis fades, Haley has become the most popular alternative to Trump, but she still lags far behind Trump himself nationally and in most key states.
Can she win the nomination?
Probably not, but at this moment she stands a better chance than anyone else who is not Trump.
Who is he?
A 38-year-old biotech millionaire with a sparkling résumé (Harvard, then Yale Law, where he became friends with Senator J. D. Vance), Ramaswamy has recently become prominent as a crusader against “wokeism” and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing.
Is he running?
No. He dropped out after a distant finish in the Iowa caucuses.
Why did he want to run?
Ramaswamy ran as an anti-woke candidate, but as the campaign developed, he seemed to be somewhere between a stalking horse for Trump and a man auditioning for roles in a second Trump administration.
Who wanted him to run?
The paradigmatic Ramaswamy voter seemed to love Trump’s vibe but be ready for a new version. He had a summer surge when he was fresh, but it subsided as people have gotten to know and—like his Republican rivals—dislike him.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. Ramaswamy broke out of the ranks of oddballs to briefly become a mildly formidable contender, but the more voters saw him, the less they liked his slick shtick and questionable pronouncements.
Who is he?
Hutchinson, a former longtime member of Congress, just finished a stint as governor of Arkansas.
Is he running?
No. He stuck around even after missing debates, but he finally dropped out on January 16.
Why does he want to run?
Hutchinson—once considered a right-wing Republican—found himself closer to the party’s center in the Trump era. Like Chris Christie, he made opposition to Trump central to his campaign, but with a milder tone. That didn’t work any better than Christie’s bombastic anti-Trumpism.
Who wanted him to run?
Old-school, very conservative Republicans who also detest Trump.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
Who is he?
A South Carolinian, Scott is the only Black Republican senator.
Is he running?
No. He said on November 12 that he was suspending his campaign.
Why did he want to run?
This was never entirely clear. Scott offered a somewhat sunny personal story but also some hard-line ideas.
Who wants him to run?
Scott’s Senate colleagues adore him, and voters’ views of him were favorable, but he never translated that into real support.
Can he win the nomination?
No. He could never find a way out of the second tier of candidates.
Who is he?
The former vice president, he also served as the governor of Indiana and a U.S. representative.
Is he running?
No! He shocked a Las Vegas audience by dropping out on October 28. He’d been running since June 7.
Why did he want to run?
Pence has long harbored White House dreams, and he has a strong conservative-Christian political agenda. As the campaign went on, he slowly began to develop a sharper critique of Trump while still awkwardly celebrating the accomplishments of the administration in which he served.
Who wanted him to run?
Conservative Christians and rabbit lovers, but not very many people overall.
Could he have won the nomination?
It wasn’t in the cards.
Who is he?
What a journey this guy has had, from U.S. attorney to respected governor of New Jersey to traffic-jam laughingstock to Trump sidekick to Trump critic. Whew.
Is he running?
No. He announced on January 10 that he was dropping out, one day after calling New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu a “liar” for saying that his campaign was nearly over.
Who wanted him to run?
Trump-skeptical donors, liberal pundits. But by the end, even some Trump critics were pressuring him to drop out in order to allow the non-Trump vote to consolidate.
Could he have won the nomination?
No staunchly anti-Trump candidate could win in Trump’s Republican Party.
Who is he?
Do you even pay attention to politics? Nah, just kidding. A self-made software billionaire, Burgum is serving his second term as the governor of North Dakota.
Is he running?
No more. Burgum suspended his campaign on December 4. He’d kicked it off on June 7 in Fargo.
Why did he want to run?
Vanity? Boredom? Noble but doomed impulses? Who knows. His campaign-announcement video focuses so much on North Dakota that it seemed more like a reelection push. He told a state newspaper that he thinks the “silent majority” of Americans wants candidates who aren’t on the extremes. (A wealthy outsider targeting the silent majority? Where have we heard that before?) He also really wants more domestic oil production.
Who wanted him to run?
Practically no one. He had to give people $20 gift cards to get them to donate to his campaign so he could qualify for debates.
Could he have won the nomination?
“There’s a value to being underestimated all the time,” he has said. As it turns out, the naysayers estimated accurately.
Who is he?
A former CIA officer, Hurd served three terms in the House, representing a San Antonio–area district.
Is he running?
No. Hurd, who announced his campaign on June 22, dropped out on October 9 and endorsed Nikki Haley.
Why did he want to run?
Hurd said he had “commonsense” ideas and was “pissed” that elected officials are dividing Americans. He’s also been an outspoken Trump critic.
Who wanted him to run?
As a moderate, youngish Black Republican and someone who cares about defense, he is the sort of candidate whom the party establishment seemed to desire after the now-discarded 2012 GOP autopsy.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
Who is he?
Suarez is the popular second-term mayor of Miami and the president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
Is he running?
No. He suspended his campaign on August 29, less than three months after his June 15 entry.
