Denis Villeneuve delivers a breathtaking conclusion to his acclaimed sci-fi adaptation.
Legendary Pictures and Warner Bros. Discovery have a blockbuster hit on their hands, as Dune: Part Two debuts to more than $80 million at the domestic box office and rave reviews from critics and audiences. Which is understandable and expected, as writer-director Denis Villeneuve’s and cowriter Jon Spaihts’ sequel to the acclaimed 2021 Dune is a thrilling, glorious sci-fi masterpiece.
Financially this one isn’t too hard to call at this point. While there are a couple of million of dollars worth of variance, Dune: Part Two will end the weekend with about $82 million domestic — overperforming slightly, as I’d expected — and up to $90 million internationally (but we’ll have better numbers for that tomorrow), with major foreign markets to come including China and Japan. The final freshman bow total should be somewhere around $165 million, but could go as high as $170 million.
Even if Dune: Part Two has the same modest final multiplier as the first film at 2.6x, despite lacking a recent Covid pandemic surge from a new variant and the simultaneous streaming release of the film on [HBO] Max after leaking online a week prior to theatrical, that would put the sequel north of $200 million domestic by the end of its theatrical run.
Since Part Two has superior audience scores and critical reviews, and with even more premium screen at higher ticket prices (somewhat offset by a slightly longer runtime and thus less daily screenings in some venues), I expect at least a 3x multiplier in the end, for at least $234 million in North America.
International markets are good for $80 million minimum and possibly $90 million or more. At a 2.6x multiplier, foreign sales would add around $221 million, but that jumps to $255-270 million if the film performs at better levels based on audience scores and pricing.
Remember, this is without China or Japan, which will add tens of millions more to Dune: Part Two’s global haul as well — the two nations combined for $46 million for Dune. But even without them, we’re still already talking about potentially $489-500 million or more. So let’s call it $545 million.
This is just an easy and modest calculation of Dune: Part Two’s potential. While we can’t dismiss the chance it might generate less longterm positive word of mouth, thus hold less strongly week to week, and wind up less popular overseas, which is all to say it could be a nice blockbuster level hit but at the lower level of about $500 million.
That’s different from a huge breakout hit that gets within shooting distance of $1 billion territory, though. It’s good for WBD and a testament to the filmmaking that it’s probably going to perform at least in the $500 million range and start the year off well, but what Warner wants is something that blows the doors off the box office, and that depends on just how good Dune: Part Two really is.
