Find out who’s up and who’s down in the latest polls – and how many seats each party is likely to win in the 2024 general election
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called the next UK general election for 4 July 2024.
After 14 years of Conservative rule, Keir Starmer’s Labour has been consistently ahead in the polls since the start of 2022.
The Guardian is tracking latest polling averages, sourced from all major British polling companies, until election day.
The Scottish National party (SNP) is not included in the data the Guardian is using in the chart above. In Great Britain-wide polls, the SNP vote sits between 2% and 4% of national vote share. But its geographical concentration in Scotland means it will win many more seats than other small parties with a similar national vote share, such as the Greens. Targeted Scotland-only polls give a much better indication of how well it will do in the next election than the nationwide polls above.
Polls only go so far in predicting who will win in the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system. What matters is the number of seats each party wins in parliament, which is decided by individual races in 650 constituencies.
Seat predictions differ, but the one we show above is an average. It takes in three different ways of predicting how voting intention will convert into seats: uniform change projections, multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) models, and other complex models.
