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Just how badly did Joe Biden damage his and Democrats’ prospects with the presidential debate that he himself demanded? The first reliable polling on that question has begun to emerge, and the answer seem to be . massively.
According to a new CBS News/YouGov poll of battleground states, voters have shifted to Donald Trump in large enough numbers to change the trajectory of the race. But that’s not the worst part for Democrats:
The race for president has shifted in Donald Trump’s direction following the first 2024 presidential debate. Trump now has a 3-point edge over President Biden across the battleground states collectively, and a 2-point edge nationally.
A big factor here is motivation, not just persuasion: Democrats are not as likely as Republicans to say they will « definitely » vote now.
The lead edges up to four points when considering all of the candidates on the ballot, 44/40. That’s because Biden voters are looking for a way out, and that gets worse for Democrats the more CBS/YouGov drills down into the data:
Meanwhile, half of Mr. Biden’s 2020 voters don’t think he should be running this year — and when they don’t think so, they are less likely to say they’ll turn out in 2024, and also more likely to pick someone else, either Trump or a third-party candidate.
GOP voter enthusiasm has hit 90%, an amazing number that has implications for races all the way down the ballot. Democrat enthusiasm is relatively high still, at 81%, but trailing significantly behind Republicans. That may well reflect determination to vote for other offices too.
What about Biden’s age? CBS/YouGov asked about that too, and found that the debate-night assessment has set into place despite the roaring pushback from the White House and Team Biden. Nor did Biden’s lame attempt at a « convicted felon » attack change any minds:
Immediately following the debate, CBS News’ polling showed increasing numbers of voters believing Mr. Biden did not have the cognitive health for the job and that he should not be running.
