Harris now leads by 2 percentage points among registered voters across the seven states
Compared with her predecessor atop the Democratic ticket, President Joe Biden, Harris has opened up new possibilities for an Electoral College victory by putting Sun Belt swing states like Georgia and Nevada back in play.
Nowhere is that more striking than in North Carolina, where Harris now has a 2-point lead. No Democratic presidential candidate has won there since Barack Obama in 2008, and Trump led by 10 points as recently as April.
Harris’ surging fortunes in North Carolina have forced Republicans to spend more than $16 million on television ads there supporting Trump in the last five weeks.
The closest state is Arizona, where the candidates are dead even. In Wisconsin, Harris now has a statistically significant 8-point advantage.
The poll shows that swing-state voters’ perceptions of the economy haven’t dramatically improved since Harris took over the top of the ticket. A majority of respondents still say they were better off under Trump.
But voters appear less likely to hold Harris responsible for the economic insecurities that plagued Biden. By a 7-point margin, swing-state voters trust Harris over Trump to help the middle class. On several economic factors, Harris has dented Trump’s advantage or even claimed the high ground.
When it comes to who voters trust more to handle housing costs, Harris has a 4-point advantage over Trump. On that issue, Biden recently had a 6-point deficit to the Republican. Harris has also overtaken Trump on the issues of government benefits, pay raises and personal debt.
And on the single biggest economic factor of the election, the rising cost of everyday goods, Harris has trimmed Trump’s advantage by 11 points. Voters still trust Trump far more on the issues of gas prices and stock market performance, however.
Even on areas like immigration and crime — the two topics that Trump and his aligned super PACs have employed most often in swing-state attack ads — Harris has chipped away at the trust advantage Trump had when his opponent was Biden.
Abortion continues to be motivating for Harris voters, with nearly three in four swing-state Democrats saying it’s « very important » to their vote.
