Silver’s model gives Trump a 60.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have reached their highest level since July, according to the latest projections from Nate Silver’s election model.
Silver’s forecast model gives Trump a 60.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 39.7 percent, with the former president taking 277 electoral votes to the vice president’s 260.
The latest prediction gives Trump his highest chance of winning since July 30.
The model also shows that the Republicans have made a net gain of between 0.1 and 2 points in every swing state other than Georgia and Wisconsin in the past week. Meanwhile, Trump leads in every battleground state other than Michigan and Wisconsin, where the candidates are tied.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Trump previously led President Joe Biden in the polls, with every polling aggregator putting the former president ahead nationally and in the swing states. However, when Biden ended his reelection campaign on July 21, making Harris the candidate, the Democrats saw a dramatic reversal of fortune in the polls.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the vice president is currently 3.1 points ahead nationally. Harris is also now leading in five of the seven swing states.
Electoral College forecasts, including Silver’s, also put Harris ahead. However, according to Silver’s model, Harris’ lead is now starting to unravel.
