The Nation MagazineIt seems increasingly likely is that we’re headed for a tight race that, as in 2020, will be decided by voters in a handful of states.
I hung up my prophet’s mantle in 1992, after writing a column for New York Newsday predicting—on the basis of some combination of rumor, Broadway gossip, and a couple of polls—that New York Governor Mario Cuomo would jump into the presidential race and become the next occupant of the White House. His plane to New Hampshire was supposedly waiting on the runway, the papers required to enter the Democratic primary all filled out, but Hamlet on the Hudson never got off the ground.
So when I say that things often don’t turn out as you—or at least I—expect them to, you can trust me. As I write, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former president Donald Trump nationally by a little over a point (in the RealClearPolling average) and by razor-thin margins in three of the seven swing states, with the two candidates statistically tied in Pennsylvania. But as The Guardian helpfully reminds us, Hillary Clinton had a wider lead over Trump at this point in 2016.
If that isn’t enough to keep you awake at night, October is the month for surprises. In 1980, Ronald Reagan’s campaign, fearing that a last-minute deal to free the American hostages in Iran might salvage Jimmy Carter’s chances, sent emissaries to make sure that any release would be delayed until after the election. In October 2016, FBI director James Comey decided to revive the bureau’s investigation into Hillary Clinton’s e-mails.
