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On Tuesday night, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris met for their first, and potentially only, presidential debate, with each candidate hoping to gain a crucial advantage over the other in a very close race. And based on early reviews from the American public, it seems like Harris came out on top.
As of 1 p.m. Eastern, 538 has collected three national polls and one swing-state poll that were conducted since the debate.* In all of them, more people who watched the debate said Harris won the debate than said Trump did. On average, 57 percent of debate watchers nationally said Harris turned in the better performance; only 34 percent said Trump did.
CNN/SSRS also conducted a poll of the same respondents before the debate, allowing us to compare what they thought about the candidates before the event with what they thought about the candidates after it. And according to their poll, Harris’s net favorability rating among debate watchers rose from -11 percentage points (39 percent favorable, 50 percent unfavorable) before the debate to +1 point (45 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable) after it. Trump’s net favorability rating, however, barely changed (from -11 points to -12 points).
That’s all obviously good news for Harris – but there are a few caveats here. First of all, it’s still quite early. Only a few polls have been conducted since the debate, and we’ll have more data very soon that will either confirm their findings or throw them into doubt. It’s also possible that perceptions of the debate will evolve as viewers digest it (and as clips get shared with those who didn’t watch). A poll conducted, say, this weekend may find a different winner than a poll conducted the night of.
