Most polls indicate a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Topline
The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seeming dead heat just over two weeks before the election, according to at least six surveys over the past week that show Harris with a narrow advantage and three others that found Trump has a slim lead—though the key swing states are virtually tied.Key Facts
Trump is ahead 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters out Wednesday—a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey (margin of error 2.5, and respondents were able to pick third-party candidates).
Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those who are leaning toward one candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes survey released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), and he’s up one point, 49% to 48%, without so-called leaners.
Trump leads 49%-48% with leaners, and is tied at 47% without leaners, if respondents can select third-party candidates, according to HarrisX.
In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a three-point advantage, 47% to 44%, over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.
Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.
Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.
