Biden flipped Michigan in the 2020 election.
Topline
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are dead-even in Michigan in the latest survey, as three others this week show her with a slight advantage, and two show Trump ahead—indicating the race remains razor-thin in the three “blue wall” states that could solidify a win Tuesday for either candidate.Key Facts
Trump and Harris are tied at 47% in Michigan among likely voters in the latest New York Times/Siena survey released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).
Harris has a three-point lead over Trump, 51%-48%, in a Marist poll released Friday when accounting for likely voters who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate (margin of error 3.5 points), representing a slight dip from her five-point lead in Marist’s September survey.
Trump is up 47%-45% in a poll out Thursday (margin of error 3.7 points), and the race is tied at 49% in a two-way Fox News poll of likely voters published Wednesday (margin of error three points).
Harris is up 51%-46% in a likely voter poll by the Cooperative Election Survey released earlier this week (2,336 respondents, part of a large nationwide study backed by universities and conducted by YouGov).
The vice president also had a 48%-43% lead in a CNN/SSRS poll out Wednesday (margin of error 4.8).
Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris 49%-48% in an Emerson survey out Tuesday (margin of error 3 points), after the two were tied in the group’s previous poll released Oct. 10, and Harris led Trump in its September and August polls.
Quinnipiac University’s poll of likely voters published Oct. 23 shows Harris with 49% and Trump with 46% , reversing Trump’s fortunes after their poll earlier this month showed him up 50%-47% (margin of error 2.9 points, and respondents could choose third-party candidates).
Despite a handful of good surveys for Harris in recent weeks, most poll trackers show an increasingly tight race in Michigan, a key state given its 15 electoral votes: FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris leading by a razor-thin 0.7 points.
Models by FiveThirtyEight and statistician Nate Silver give Harris the narrowest of edges in Michigan, estimating a roughly 60% chance she’ll win the state.
