Here’s everything you need to know for Week 12 NFL games. Which teams will win, who are the X factors, and which storylines matter most?
The Week 12 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 12 slate, including quarterback Tommy Devito’s first start of the season against the Bucs and the Cardinals facing the Seahawks in a key NFC West matchup. It all culminates with a « Monday Night Football » matchup between the Ravens and the Chargers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
MIN-CHI | DET-IND | NE-MIA
TB-NYG | DAL-WSH | KC-CAR
TEN-HOU | DEN-LV | SF-GB
ARI-SEA | PHI-LAR | BAL-LAC
Thursday: CLE 24, PIT 19
Byes: ATL, BUF, CIN, NO, NYJ, JAX
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: MIN -3.5 (39.5 O/U)
Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings are 8-4 on grass surfaces under coach Kevin O’Connell since the start of the 2022 season, including 2-0 at Soldier Field. That’s a decided departure from the franchise’s history after it moved indoors to the Metrodome in 1982 and later U.S. Bank Stadium in 2016. During those four decades, the team had a .402 winning percentage on grass and .586 on artificial surfaces. — Kevin Seifert
Bears storyline to watch: The Bears are in the midst of a four-game losing streak with the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. After switching offensive coordinators from Shane Waldron to Thomas Brown last week, Chicago notched its highest point total since Week 6 in a 20-19 loss to Green Bay. The Bears are averaging 11.5 points per game during this losing streak, which is the fewest points per game in the NFL in that span (since Week 8). Coach Matt Eberflus’ 2-11 record against NFC North opponents is the worst in the league since he was hired in 2022. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has had multiple turnovers in four games this season. Minnesota is undefeated in those contests.
Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will throw at least two interceptions. He played better last week, but I certainly don’t fancy his chances against the unorthodox and very successful Vikings defense. — Walder
Injuries: Vikings | Bears
Fantasy X factor: Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze. The rest of the season seems bright for Odunze. In Week 11, he saw seven-plus targets for the third time this season. He also led the Bears in targets ahead of DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Now, he faces a Vikings defense that allows the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings have won and covered four straight meetings in Chicago. The past five meetings in Chicago all went under the total. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Vikings 28, Bears 25
Moody’s pick: Vikings 23, Bears 14
Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Bears 16
FPI prediction: MIN, 57.0% (by an average of 3.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: How legit are the 8-2 Vikings? You might be surprised . How will OC change affect Bears QB Williams? . Bears’ Matt Eberflus defends decision to run clock before kick
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -7 (49.5 O/U)
Lions storyline to watch: Despite being the favorites to win this week, the Lions aren’t taking this game against the Colts lightly. Detroit is riding an eight-game winning streak and is the NFL’s lone team with a perfect road record (5-0), but coach Dan Campbell isn’t allowing his squad to buy into the hype. « We’re not the underdogs, but we have certain standards of the way we approach things, the way that we prepare for games, and as long as we do that, you will continue to be a tough team to beat, and that’s important », Campbell said Monday. — Eric Woodyard
Colts storyline to watch: One strategy for beating a team with a high-powered offense like the Lions is to win the time-of-possession battle, thereby limiting the opponent’s possessions. But the Colts haven’t proven they can do this. The Colts rank 31st in time of possession at 26:40 per game. That has been detrimental for their defense because the unit has played too many snaps. Indianapolis is second in the league in defensive snaps, averaging 66.9 per game. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: The Lions have four games this season with more touchdowns than incompletions. That’s the most such games in a season by any team since 1933.
Bold prediction: The two teams will have more combined play-action snaps than any game this season (current high is 32). The Lions and Colts rank first and third in play-action rate, respectively. — Walder
Injuries: Lions | Colts
Fantasy X factor: Colts wide receiver Josh Downs. He had a standout performance in Week 11, catching all five of his targets from quarterback Anthony Richardson for 19.4 fantasy points. Downs now faces a Lions secondary that’s struggling, allowing the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. With that in mind, Downs could be in for another huge performance. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Colts have not closed as seven-point home underdogs since 2017 (plus-11 versus the Steelers). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Lions 40, Colts 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 37, Colts 20
Walder’s pick: Lions 30, Colts 21
FPI prediction: DET, 73.4% (by an average of 9.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Goff: Lions striving for ‘perfection’ on offense . QB Richardson’s running is key for Colts . Lions lose LB Anzalone for 6-8 weeks . Paye’s heroics keep Colts in the running in AFC South
Daniel Dopp examines Lions RB David Montgomery’s big performance in Week 11 and explains why he’ll continue to produce for fantasy managers.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -7.5 (46.5 O/U)
Patriots storyline to watch: The Patriots’ defense has forced only one turnover in its past five games. New England’s minus-6 turnover differential is tied for 26th in the NFL, and finding a way to disrupt quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the rhythm of the Dolphins’ passing game will be key. The Dolphins (minus-2 on the season) are coming off a turnover-free game in a win over the Raiders. — Mike Reiss
Dolphins storyline to watch: Sunday’s matchup will feature two of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL over the past month. Since Week 6, Patriots signal-caller Drake Maye owns the lowest off-target throw percentage in the league at 9.2%; right behind him is Tagovailoa at 9.4%. Both players are also completing passes at a higher rate than expected, as both Tagovailoa (4.9%) and Maye (3%) rank in the top 10 in completion percentage over expectation. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The Dolphins have a 14.6% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics. Those chances increase to 18.9% with a win and drop to 5.9% with a loss.
Bold prediction: Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill will catch a pass of at least 30 air yards. The Dolphins face more two-high coverage than any other team, presumably in part to stop Hill. But the Patriots run two-high coverage only 39% of the time, which is below league average. — Walder
Injuries: Patriots | Dolphins
Fantasy X factor: Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. He has been on a roll with 20-plus touches in three of his past four games, topping 20 fantasy points in two of them. This week, he faces a Dolphins defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. Miami’s defensive front ranks 24th in run stop win rate (29.5%). Stevenson’s volume and this matchup make him a strong play. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots won the game outright in their past two appearances as at least six-point underdogs (Weeks 8 and 10 versus the Jets and at the Bears, respectively). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Patriots 22, Dolphins 20
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 28, Patriots 21
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20
FPI prediction: MIA, 68.0% (by an average of 6.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Through six starts, Pats QB Maye continues to impress . How Miami’s offense transitioned from explosive to consistent . Hill: Wrist surgery ‘brought up’ but I’m playing through it
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TB -6 (41.5 O/U)
Buccaneers storyline to watch: Bucs center Graham Barton couldn’t have put it any better: « The playoffs for us really start now. » Coming off their bye week at 4-6, having lost four straight, the Bucs are in a similar predicament as they were last season. They were able to win five out of their final six games. Barring any setbacks, wide receiver Mike Evans and cornerback Jamel Dean should return, and that should give them a boost, while the statuses of Tristan Wirfs (MCL sprain) and Zyon McCollum (hamstring) are up in the air. — Jenna Laine
Giants storyline to watch: Tommy DeVito is the Giants’ new starting quarterback in place of Daniel Jones. DeVito will be trying to rediscover the magic from last season, when he won three straight games as an undrafted free agent. He threw eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions as a rookie. But DeVito also finished with a total QBR of 26.9 as a starter, which was the worst of any qualifying quarterback from Weeks 10 to 16. He’ll have his work cut out for him after not having any reps with the first-team offense this summer and season. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: The Buccaneers are one of three teams in the Super Bowl era to average at least 27.9 points and be under .500. The other two teams (2016 Saints and 2016 Chargers) didn’t make the playoffs.
Rex Ryan, Tedy Bruschi and Mike Greenberg discuss the New York Giants’ decision to bench quarterback Daniel Jones for Tommy DeVito.
Bold prediction: Buccaneers edge rusher Yaya Diaby will record a sack. He should get some pass rushes against Evan Neal, the 2022 first-round pick who has struggled to see the field this season. DeVito recorded a 15.6% sack rate last season. — Walder
Injuries: Buccaneers | Giants
Fantasy X factor: Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. He could be key for the Giants with DeVito now under center. Since taking over as the lead back in Week 5, Tracy has scored 14-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games.
