Pennsylvania has voted for 10 of the last 12 White House winners.
Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are within one percentage point of each other in seven new polls of Pennsylvania this week, and two points in an eighth survey, as the race remains essentially even in the swing state that’s likely to decide the winner of the 2024 election.Key Facts
Harris leads by two points, 50%-48%, in a Marist survey that includes undecided voters who are leaning toward a candidate (margin of error 3.4 points), and by one point, 48%-47%, in a poll (margin of error 3.1 points), both released Friday, with the Post poll representing no movement in the race since its September survey.
Trump is up 50%-49% in a two-way Fox News poll of likely Pennsylvania voters out Wednesday—well within the three-point margin of error—while the candidates are tied at 48% if respondents could pick third-party candidates (some 3% of voters chose another candidate).
Trump also has a 47%-46% lead in a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters published Wednesday (margin of error 2.1 points, and respondents could choose other candidates), though Harris holds a narrow 49%-48% edge in a Cooperative Election Study poll released this week (3,685 respondents, polled as part of a national study by universities conducted by YouGov).
Meanwhile, the race is dead even at 48%-48% in a CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters out Wednesday—while only 8% said they’re undecided or may change their minds—and CBS/YouGov found a similar 49%-49% tie in a likely voter poll released Tuesday.
Turnout could play a role: Trump had 47%-46% lead in a Monmouth poll of all registered voters published Wednesday, but the race is tied at 48%-48% among respondents who are extremely motivated to vote, and Harris leads 48%-47% among people who have voted in most or all general elections since 2014 (margin of error 3.8 points).
Last week, Harris led Trump 50%-48.2% among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey (margin of error 3), and Harris was ahead 49%-47% in a /Schar School poll (margin of error 4.
