Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goals will remain unchanged: defeat Ukraine and challenge the US.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have starkly different visions of how they’ll seek to end one of the gravest security crises in recent decades: the Ukraine war.
Harris has pledged to continue the policy of President Joe Biden, arming Ukraine to defend itself against Russia’s two-year invasion.
Trump, meanwhile, claims he can bring about a rapid end to the conflict through negotiations.
Whoever is in charge in the White House come January, analysts believe Putin is likely wagering that he has more to gain by prolonging his war of attrition than ending it.Pressure mounts on Ukraine
Russia has, in recent months, been ratcheting up pressure on Ukraine, bringing its larger troop numbers and artillery supplies to bear, and making incremental but important gains on the front lines.
« There are plans to call up more than 160,000 people », the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security Council, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, told parliament last week.
North Korea is also believed to have sent thousands of troops to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine, per officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US.
« The key advantage gained by Russia [in prolonging the war] is ‘events' » Robert Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security at the University of Hull in the UK told Business Insider.
« Ukraine seems to be highly strained by the conflict, and this is – in part – a product of the numbers Russia is able to throw into the conflict », he said.Trump’s peace plans could embolden Russia
The terms on which Trump would seek to broker peace in Ukraine are unclear, though he’s criticized the aid Biden sent to Ukraine, suggesting it could be used as leverage.
He has also questioned the effectiveness of the administration’s sanctions against Russia.
His running mate, JD Vance, recently outlined a plan for ending the war in Ukraine under a possible Trump administration, with the establishment of a « demilitarized zone » in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.
