Kalshi, a new platform that was only approved to accept bets on the election last month and has already had users wager more than $100 million on the race, has Trump’s odds of victory at 54%.
With the election a day away, most polls have Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck-and-neck, but some prediction markets — legal betting on elections and other current events — have Trump in the lead.
Kalshi, a new platform that was only approved to accept bets on the election last month and has already had users wager more than $100 million on the race, has Trump’s odds of victory at 54%.
“Honestly, I think that [is] about right,” vice presidential candidate JD Vance said on a recent podcast with comedian Theo Von. “You shouldn’t trust polls.”
“It’s actually people putting their money down,” Von said in agreement.
Vance is one of the latest in a string of politicians, pollsters and smart money to embrace election betting as a more accurate and up-to-date read than polling.
Even celebrated pollster and 538 founder Nate Silver has slammed pollsters, saying in a recent interview saying they are “putting [their] f—-ing fingers on the scale” and “I kind of trust pollsters less.”
Earlier this year, Silver, who has said he plans to vote for Harris and typically votes Democrat, signed on as an advisor to Polymarket, a Kalshi rival that has only been granted a temporary license for election betting.
