Which QBs will still be available on Day 2? Could Ashton Jeanty slide to the Bears? And where might the top pass catchers land?
Probabilistic forecasts are a critical piece of the NFL draft game. Instead of filling out mock drafts, NFL teams opt to build models that help them predict how the draft could unfold. After draft week is over, some teams will even reveal the internal probabilities they had for players to fall to certain spots and how that influenced their decision-making.
At ESPN, we do the same exercise. To create our Draft Day Predictor, ESPN Analytics uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to predict future homes for the top prospects. The accuracy of those factors in past seasons informs the model’s outputs for the upcoming draft.
Our model is updated throughout the predraft process and even live during the draft, which kicks off Thursday at 8 p.m. (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). Using the latest outputs from the Draft Day Predictor, let’s try to answer some of the draft’s burning questions . probabilistically. Where are Shedeur Sanders and Ashton Jeanty most likely to land? How might the quarterbacks and wide receivers come off the board, and which sleepers have the best shot at sneaking into Round 1?
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With Miami’s Cam Ward the favorite to go No. 1, Sanders presents a very interesting forecast in our model as the second-best quarterback in the class. The predictor has cooled on the idea of the Colorado QB at Nos. 2 or 3 (currently the Browns and Giants, respectively), but those options are still possible; there is a 4% chance he’ll go No. 2 and 7% chance he’ll go No. 3. Of course, the Browns and Giants need long-term quarterbacks, but the Draft Day Predictor also includes the possibility of a team trading up for Sanders in one of those two spots.
Sanders’ chances of getting picked increase to 8% at No. 6 (Raiders) and 9% at No. 7 (Jets). Both teams have a less critical need at quarterback, but the opportunity cost is also lower at those selections. After that, his odds really start to spike. The model gives Sanders a 27% chance of getting selected at the Saints’ No. 9 pick, making that his likeliest landing spot. New Orleans suddenly has a more pressing need at quarterback with Derek Carr’s 2025 status in doubt.
If Sanders slides past the Saints, there’s room for him to fall to much later in the first round. There’s a 24% chance he’ll make it to the Colts’ pick No. 14, and then the Steelers’ No. 21 pick represents his near-absolute floor. Sanders — who is Mel Kiper Jr.’s No. 1 quarterback prospect in the class — has a 99% chance to be off the board after that selection.
Alabama’s Jalen Milroe (91%) and Louisville’s Tyler Shough (99%) are the easy answers to this question, per the Draft Day Predictor. They are both possibilities for the Browns (No. 33) and Giants (No. 34) if those teams pass on a QB in Round 1. Jordan Reid’s latest mock draft has Milroe heading to Cleveland at No. 33 (and Shough going to the Giants further down the board).
The trickier answer is Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart, a top-three QB on most boards. He has one of the more unusual draft selection curves in our model. Dart starts out with a very low chance to be selected in the low teens (most likely via a trade up), and there’s still only 7% odds that he’s picked at the Seahawks’ No. 18 selection. Then his chances jump to 24% at the Steelers’ No. 21 pick, which is where Reid has him going. The Steelers, of course, still don’t have a quarterback solution, even if Aaron Rodgers has been linked to them.
If Dart makes it past the Steelers, he could get picked at almost any other spot in the 20s.
