The NCAA Selection Committee used seven ranking metrics to inform their seeding decisions. Here is how each of them performed in predicting March Madness outcomes.
The 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament concluded with the Florida Gators securing their third national championship, defeating the Houston Cougars in the title game. In the lead-up to March Madness, the NCAA Selection Committee was tasked with seeding 68 teams, a process informed by seven different ranking systems. These included NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), KenPom, Torvik T-Rank, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), Wins Above Bubble (WAB), Strength of Record (SOR), and KPI. These systems incorporate varying methodologies, including efficiency-based models, résumé-based assessments, and hybrid approaches combining performance and opponent strength.
To evaluate the predictive validity of these metrics, I conducted an experiment during the 2025 tournament. Using each ranking system independently, I constructed a complete bracket based solely on the relative rankings as of Selection Sunday. No adjustments were made once the tournament began, and no subjective inputs were included. The objective was to assess which system most accurately predicted the actual outcomes of the NCAA Tournament.A Chalky March Madness
This year’s tournament produced very few upsets relative to historical norms. All four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, and three of the four No. 2 seeds reached the Elite Eight.
In all the tournament produced only eleven upsets, defined here as any lower-seeded team defeating a higher-seeded opponent. Even among those results, many were minor deviations from expectation. Two were 9-over-8 matchups, and two others were 10-over-7. According to historical data, a No. 9 seed wins about 49% of the time against No. 8 seeds and No. 10 seeds win about 39% of the time against No. 7 seeds.
The four South region upsets included: No. 9 Creighton over No. 8 Louisville, No. 10 New Mexico over No. 7 Marquette, No. 5 Michigan over No. 4 Texas A&M, and No. 6 Ole Miss over No.
