Russian leader Vladimir Putin reportedly told President Trump his forces could conquer the long-sought after Donetsk region by October if Ukraine — but Kyiv and US observers point out that the Kremlin has failed to take it for more than a decade.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin reportedly told President Trump his forces could conquer the long-sought-after Donetsk region by October if Ukraine didn’t give up the land as part of a peace deal — but Kyiv and US observers point out that the Kremlin has failed to take it for more than a decade.
While intelligence varies on Russia’s advancements along the frontlines, one US assessment agrees that Putin could succeed in conquering the remaining 30% of Donetsk that he does not control by October, Axios reported.
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank that has tracked the granular progress of the war since its start, however, point out that Russia has been unable to seize the region through three and a half years of bloody war — and 11 years of Kremlin-backed rebellion before that.
And there’s no reason Moscow will suddenly break through Ukraine’s most heavily fortified frontline.
“Even if we’re being generous to the Russians and say they can maintain their current advance, which we know they can’t keep up and have been pushed back from… It would take about 475 days for Russia to take the entirety of Donetsk, that’s December 2026,” George Barros, the head of the ISW’s Russia team, told the Post.
“And I think that’s putting it generously. To say Moscow can take it by October seems hyperbolic.”
Ukrainian sources who also spoke with The Post were incredulous about the alleged intelligence assessment that Kyiv could lose Donetsk.
“Donetsk by October? They’ve been saying that since February of ‘22,” an American serving in the Ukrainian Armed Services said.
