As of the early hours of Wednesday morning, Mamdani had an 82 percent chance of winning the race, according to Polymarket.
Zohran Mamdani’s prospects of becoming New York City’s next mayor have surged to unprecedented levels, according to the betting website Polymarket.
As of the early hours of Wednesday morning, Mamdani had an 82 percent chance of winning the race, according to the platform.
Meanwhile, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo had a 10 percent chance of success, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, 6 percent, and conservative activist and radio host Curtis Sliwa, 1 percent. Attorney Jim Walden was also at 1 percent
Walden, Cuomo and Adams are expected to battle for the mayor’s office as independent candidates in the general election in November, while Sliwa is running as a Republican.Why It Matters
Mamdani sent political shock waves across New York in June when he defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary. Since then, some polls have shown the Queens Assemblymember miles ahead of his opponents, with Mamdani leading among almost all demographics.What To Know
The Polymarket odds come after polls have found Mamdani surging ahead of his opponents.
Siena University’s newest poll of New York state registered voters, released Tuesday, showed Mamdani holding a strong lead, garnering 44 percent of surveyed voters, tying the combined totals for Cuomo (25 percent), Sliwa (12 percent) and Adams (7 percent).
The poll surveyed 813 registered voters from August 4 to August 7.
Meanwhile, a Zenith Research and Public Progress Solutions poll of 1,453 New Yorkers (July 16–24) found Mamdani with 50 percent support—an outright majority in a five-way race—followed by Cuomo (22 percent), Sliwa (13 percent), Adams (7 percent), and Walden (1 percent). Six percent were undecided or preferred someone else.
