It can never be 2003-04 again. Back then, the Yankees were doing more than trying to win AL pennants — they also were trying…
It can never be 2003-04 again.
Back then, the Yankees were doing more than trying to win AL pennants — they also were trying to protect history, not let the Red Sox end The Curse. Boston, of course, was attempting to break through. That brought a tension and resonance and pathos to 14 ALCS games that cannot be recreated now.
But, you know, it is still Yankees-Red Sox, so that means it also is not just another Division Series. These teams do Russian novels in April, so expect three-to-five Division Series games to be filled with trauma and drama, renown and revulsion and two fan bases that should bring a distinct home-field edge.
Here is what else our panel of three scouts said will be key elements in this ALDS:
In 2001, the Yankees eliminated the A’s to set up an ALCS against the 116-win Mariners, who were sparked by their leadoff hitter, Ichiro Suzuki, who won both the Rookie of the Year and MVP. The Yanks eliminated that historic Seattle club in five games for many reasons, none bigger than they neutralized Suzuki; stopped him from being on base constantly and initiating havoc once there.
On Wednesday, the Yankees beat the A’s in the wild-card game to set up a showdown with the 108-win Red Sox. To beat Boston, the Yanks will have to, at minimum, temper the impact of leadoff man Mookie Betts, the AL MVP frontrunner.
“I know everyone will talk both Betts and [J. D.] Martinez, and Martinez is a great hitter, but if you can keep Betts as a non-factor, it just changes everything with that lineup because he sets it up for [Andrew] Benintendi, Martinez and [Xander] Bogaerts,” Scout 1 said. “They go as he goes.”
Scout 2 pointed out watching a Rays sweep of the Red Sox in late August facilitated by Tampa pitchers holding Betts to one hit in nine at-bats in three games. “They are a different team when he does not get on all the time.” The Rays offered no set pattern for pitching to Betts — they attacked mainly with fastballs in the opener but altered as the series went along and used their changing cast of relievers as a weapon in the first two games and ace Blake Snell in the finale.
And if there is a way to get Betts out consistently, the Yanks did not discover it in 17 regular season games this year in which he hit .415 against them with a .506 on-base percentage, a .738 slugging percentage, 13 walks, 14 extra-base hits and 15 RBIs.
Scout 1: “You can’t pitch in a pattern [to Betts]. It is the same with J. D. These are smart hitters. One thing I wrote in my report is not to go to the same spot, avoid doubling up in the same zone. These guys are so good at making adjustments they will take a bad swing then look for that pitch. Then it is not going to be a bad swing again. Not every guy in the big leagues can do that.
“Even when Mookie struggles, it is different than others, he is too fast. His bat speed is so quick, Mookie can just wait. When he gets in trouble, it is sometimes because he is just too quick. If it makes sense, Betts hits before the ball gets there. Sometimes he does not give himself time because that bat is just, ‘whoosh,’ out there so quick.”
Scout 3: “You can use curves against J. D. and Mookie, but here is the thing: You can hope J. D. chases, and if he walks, that is a strategy to take the bat out of his hands, no big deal. If you walk Mookie with the same approach, you are putting perhaps the best baserunner in the majors on base.”
Chris Sale did two DL stints for shoulder problems in the second half, limiting him to one start in August and four abbreviated efforts in September. Word was this was just the Red Sox being cautious after Sale wore down last year, which factored into the Astros winning a Division Series. But Sale averaged just 90 mph with his fastball in his final start. Boston manager Alex Cora has insisted it is a mechanical flaw — namely that Sale is not getting familiar extension — rather than injury and professes not to be concerned about his Game 1 starter.
The difference between a peak vs. limited Sale could swing a five-game series, as it did last year when Cleveland ace Corey Kluber was not healthy as the Yanks rallied to win a Division Series. In the first half, when Sale was brilliant, he started twice against the Yanks, holding them to one run in 13 innings, striking out 19 and walking one.
Scout 3: “When he is healthy, Sale is special because he has three plus pitches that he can throw whenever he wants and for strikes whenever he wants. Left on left is about an automatic out. The separation between his fastball and slider is great. He does a wonderful job of changing speeds on the same pitch. He is not going to hurt himself. He knows how to work at a comfortable pace. He dictates the rhythm of the game, not anyone else. He’s a great competitor. He is low three-quarter sidearm at 98-99 [mph] and, yeah, just try to hit that.”
Scout 1: “Guys who pitch from his arm slot are usually lefty relief specialists. You just don’t see that for seven, eight innings with a guy maintaining, and when he is right, he maintains it.”
If Sale is not at his best, the pressure shifts to Game 2 starter David Price, who among other things is starting at Fenway because in his last six Yankee Stadium starts, he has yielded 33 runs in 35 ¹/₃ innings. With the Red Sox, he is 2-7 with a 7.71 ERA in eight starts vs. the Yankees, with 16 homers allowed in 58 ¹/₃ innings. And then there are the playoffs, where Price is 0-8 with a 5.74 ERA in nine starts.
The Red Sox broke The Curse against the Yankees in 2004. If Price is going to break his personal curse, it will be because he morphed into more of a pitcher in his final 23 starts (3.17 ERA) by relying on a cutter more often then finding what else works for him on a particular day (change-up, four-seam fastball, etc.) and leaning on that. Still, even in this period, he gave up more than four runs just twice — both against the Yankees.
Craig Kimbrel’s strikeout and ground-ball rate fell in 2018, and his walk and homer percentages climbed. But he began from such a great peak that he still remained among the majors’ best relievers. And let’s put it like this — Boston wishes he was its big bullpen problem.
Even with all the wins this year, the Red Sox never did devise a comfortable path from starters to Kimbrel.
The scouts all mentioned the stuff of Ryan Brasier (particularly his fastball) but also wondered about if the rookie will master the atmosphere of Yankees-Red Sox in October. Matt Barnes was the most effective set-up man in 2018 but was not the same in late September after returning from a hip injury. Boston is loading up starters in the pen with Nathan Eovaldi in Game 1 (he is scheduled to start Game 4), and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez and knuckleballer Stephen Wright will be pen factors. Wright had a 0.66 ERA in 10 September relief innings, including four innings and one run in two outings vs. the Yanks. But a thought: knuckleballer, Aaron Boone, Yankees-Red Sox, October.
But there also is this from Scout 1: “They definitely have a bridge issue. But Cora was the bench coach for [Houston manager A. J.] Hinch last year and the Astros did not have a lock-down bullpen. Hinch navigated through it by using starters [including in huge spots against the Yankees in the ALCS] and Alex was sitting right there. I think Alex is going to do the same in this series.”
Aside from third base, the Red Sox are excellent defensively all over the diamond, but particularly in the outfield, where Betts is state of the art in right, Jackie Bradley Jr.
